Risk Warning Research On Investment Of Major Engineering Projects In China Under The Background Of "Belt And Road"

The continuous development of “One Belt,One Road” has further strengthened the economic exchanges between China and the countries along the route.Port facilities construction is a key and core area in the investment of major cross-border projects.The port city of Colombo,Sri Lanka is China's investment in the construction of the Maritime Silk Road.A major engineering project.While advancing the “Belt and Road Initiative” initiative,we should pay more attention to its potential economic risks,political risks,social risks and legal risks,and strengthen investment risk management for major projects.The investment risk warning is to realize the prediction and alarm of the risk.Through the research on the investment risk of the port of Colombo in Sri Lanka to understand the investment risk of the existence,through research on the future investment risk of the project,help Chinese enterprises along the “Belt and Road” The national major project investment provides a valuable reference and reference for avoiding risks.Firstly,the article elaborates on the relevant theories of major project risks and investment risk warnings,focusing on the characteristics and risks of major projects along the “Belt and Road”,and theoretically clarifying the important role of grey system theory in risk warning.Then it analyzes in detail the investment characteristics and risk factors of major projects in “One Belt,One Road”.On the basis of finding the risk factors of major project investment,it establishes a targeted early warning index system of investment risks and establishes corresponding research models..Then followed by the gray system theory and risk warning model construction part.Firstly,the grey system theory is introduced,and the basic principles and calculation steps of grey relational analysis are clarified.Then the use of grey system theory in the risk warning of major projects in the “Belt and Road” is expounded,and a risk early warning model is constructed.In the final case study and application section,the article introduces the current situation and existing risks of the Colombo port project in Sri Lanka,uses gray correlation analysis to screen relevant indicators,and uses the analytic hierarchy process to confirm the weight of relevant indicators.This paper also uses the expert scoring method to The project investment risk is evaluated,the comprehensive risk evaluation value is calculated,and the evaluation value is taken as an important reference for measuring the degree of early warning.Finally,a highly targeted early warning model is established based on the grey prediction.In this paper,the grey relational analysis method and the grey prediction method in grey theory are used exploratoryly in the index screening and model construction.The risk status of major projects is evaluated from economic factors and non-economic factors respectively,so as to successfully construct The early warning model of investment risk for major projects is convenient for risk management of the project and monitoring of investment status at any time.The research results show that the inflation risk in economic indicators and the political change risk in non-economic indicators have high recognition ability for major project investment risks.The early warning model established by the grey system theory has higher accuracy and better short-term prediction function.