The Research On Schedule Risks Management Of Technical Complex Construction Projects

With the acceleration of urbanization and technological progress,more and more technical complex construction projects are emerging,the possibility of progress delay is also growing,how to efficiently carry out the progress of the project management,identify the schedule risks,focus on key risk factors,make the risk response plan,has becoming the key to the successful implementation of the project.Previously,scholars have put forward many theories and methods for traditional engineering projects,but there is no theory and method of schedule risks management for technical complex construction projects.Based on this,this paper puts forward the method and theory of schedule risks management for technical complex construction projects in order to realize more effective risk analysis and management of Schedule.In this paper,the technical complex construction project as the research object,this type of project schedule risks management in-depth study.Firstly,it defines the technical complex construction project and describes its characteristics,provides a premise and Theoretical basis for the follow-up study.Secondly,According to the characteristics of the risk factors of the technical complex construction project,the risk chain is identified by the related concepts and theorems of the risk chain,and the probability and influence of the non-complex technology risk are estimated by expert scoring method.Based on the characteristics of complex technical risk,the theory of TRRA risk matrix is introduced,and the definition and description of technical maturity level,technical difficulty value and technology demand value of complex technology in engineering construction project are given to replace the probability influence matrix to risk.This paper proposes a risk estimation method based on TRRA risk matrix.Basedon the characteristics of complex construction projects and their schedule risks,the Monte Carlo simulation method is improved,and the schedule risks identification and estimation.As a result of the evaluation,the evaluation criteria of the macroscopic layer and the process layer were determined,and an improved Monte Carlo simulation model was established.Finally,the countermeasures,countermeasures and risk monitoring of the risk characteristics of the complex construction projects are put forward and applied in the examples.Based on the analysis method of the schedule risks of the complicated construction project,this paper has perfected and enriched the schedule risks management system of the technical complex construction project,and realized the effective management of the schedule risks of the complicated construction project.Which provides theoretical guidance for the progress management of similar projects and has certain application value.