| As the main mode of transportation in international trade,dry bulk shipping plays a vital role in the global supply chain,combining supply and demand with shipping,an economical and stable mode of transportation.With the outbreak of several global public health emergencies,the world’s dry bulk trade has fluctuated sharply,and international trade,including iron ore,coal,and grains,has been affected,and the demand for dry bulk shipping has slumped.At the same time,the negative impact of the public health emergency has also affected the dry bulk shipping capacity organization to a certain extent,and key links such as crew rotation and ship berthing have been blocked.The ability of market players to perform contracts is under pressure,which seriously affects the survival of dry bulk shipping companies.In this context,the impact of public health emergencies on the dry bulk shipping market and related shipping companies is deeply measured and analyzed,and then the risk volatility spillover of each segment of the dry bulk shipping market under public health emergencies is explored.This will help shipping companies and relevant government departments to respond quickly and respond to the impact of public health emergencies in a timely manner.Based on public health emergencies,the dry bulk shipping market,and related theories of freight rate fluctuation transmission,the combination of literature analysis,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis was used to analyze the impact of public health emergencies on the dry bulk shipping market.After summarizing the research results and analyzing the research deficiencies,the impact of public health emergencies on the dry bulk shipping market is studied in accordance with the impact on the overall market to the analysis of risk fluctuations in the segmented market.Firstly,the impact mechanism of public health emergencies on dry bulk shipping market is qualitatively analyzed,and the transmission angle and path of the impact of public health emergencies on dry bulk shipping market are systematically explained.Secondly,aiming at the impact of the overall market of dry bulk shipping,the correlation between public emergencies and the overall market development of dry bulk shipping and the impact effects of different periods are explored.Select the BDI index,the number of newly confirmed cases per day during the exploration period of the COVID-19 epidemic,the daily call volume of dry bulk ships,and the European Brent crude oil price index,etc.,to form a measure of the impact of public health emergencies on dry bulk shipping.The index system was established,and the SVAR(Structural Vector Autoregression)shock measurement model was constructed to solve the problem of unknown immediate shock measurement.Then,according to the conclusion of qualitative analysis,the index system is constructed and the empirical analysis is carried out.The results show that there is a one-way causal relationship between the impact of public health emergencies represented by the COVID-19 epidemic on the dry bulk shipping market.Taking into account the immediate impact,the fluctuation of newly confirmed cases of public health emergencies represented by the COVID-19 epidemic has a significant impact on the dry bulk shipping market,lasting more than 3 weeks,and it is always a negative impact.Finally,aiming at the risk fluctuation of each subdivided ship type market in dry bulk shipping,this paper explores the spillover of risk fluctuation between subdivided ship type markets in dry bulk shipping under the background of public emergencies.Based on measuring the overall impact of the public health emergency represented by the COVID-19 epidemic on the dry bulk shipping market,further study the market situation of each segment of dry bulk shipping,focusing on the analysis of Capesize,Panamax and(Super)Handymax several market segments.In the first step,we selected the BCI(Baltic Capsize Index),BPI(Baltic Panamax Index)and BHI(Baltic Handymax Index),as a measurement factor for risk volatility spillover analysis.In the second step,the total spillover index and the directional spillover index are calculated by using the spillover index analysis method based on the variance decomposition of generalized forecast errors to solve the problems of shock direction measurement and shock intensity quantification.In the third step,through the calculated correlation index,a risk volatility spillover matrix was constructed among the various subdivided ship types of dry bulk shipping under the impact of public health emergencies represented by the COVID-19 epidemic and the Zika virus epidemic.The results show that different types of public health emergencies have different impacts on the dry bulk shipping market segment.When the public health emergency only affects individual nodes of global trade,especially the non-unique supply side,the dry bulk shipping market will not be affected by the public health emergency.When public health emergencies affect the whole process of global trade,especially when it involves nodes with a high proportion of demand,the dry bulk shipping market will be affected by the public health emergency and affect its transportation structure. |
