| Current dry bulk shipping markets seem to have been stuck in the trough period since the financial crisis in 2008.Also,with the development of world economy and the raise of new related policy like the Belt and Road Initiative,investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period.This thesis investigates the cointegration and causality relationship among the freight rate,secondhand price,and newbuilding ship price at each stage of the shipping cycle(trough,recovery,peak,recession)to make the new market analysis.The results show that the cointegration and causality relationship can only be identified during the trough and peak periods.When comparing the results for the trough period before and after the financial crisis,we find many resemblances between the two periods,which leads us to conclude that the shipping cycle rules can still be applied to the dry bulk shipping market.Based on the market analysis,this study established an investment timing model by using VAR method to realize the prediction of the return rate of dry bulk shipping market.Besides,two options,involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option,were used in a real option to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels and assess dry bulk ship investment decisions.The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability.According to the results of the case study,the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value(NPV)method in uncertain investment environments.And the result that considering shipping cycle theory are more accurate then the result without the shipping cycle theory.This phenomenon also indicates that the shipping cycle rules can still be applied to the dry bulk shipping market and it is also a key factor when making decision in the dry bulk shipping market. |
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