Carbon Emission Efficiency Analysis And Carbon Peak Prediction Method Of Civil Aviation Transportation In China

The civil aviation transportation industry,as an important component of China’s transportation industry,has an unshirkable responsibility for energy conservation and carbon reduction before the national "3060 dual carbon" goal.In this context,the carbon emission efficiency of China’s civil aviation transport enterprises is analyzed from the micro level,and based on this,the China’s civil aviation transport industry is further analyzed from the macro perspective,the current situation of its carbon emissions is studied,the future carbon emissions are predicted,and finally the peak year of carbon is calculated,which is of great significance for China’s civil aviation transport industry,which has experienced novel coronavirus pneumonia(hereinafter referred to as COVID-19).Firstly,starting from the micro enterprise level of China’s civil aviation transportation industry,this paper analyzes the efficiency of civil aviation transportation enterprises under the background of "dual carbon".Analyze the operational characteristics of typical enterprises in China’s civil aviation transportation industry,establish a three-stage network structure for production,service,and profit in the civil aviation transportation industry,use an improved network SBM-DEA model to calculate the carbon emission efficiency of civil aviation transportation enterprises,and compare the carbon emission efficiency differences between civil aviation transportation enterprises from multiple perspectives,both horizontal and vertical,Analyze the trend of carbon emission efficiency changes among different years of the same enterprise and the impact of the epidemic on the carbon emission efficiency of civil aviation transportation enterprisesSecondly,from the macro perspective of China’s civil aviation transportation industry,a scenario analysis based carbon peak prediction method for the civil aviation transportation industry is proposed.According to the characteristics of civil aviation transportation industry,indicators such as civil aviation transportation turnover,civil aviation transportation revenue and aviation fuel consumption are designed in the traditional Kaya identity to decompose the factors affecting the economic strength,average transportation distance,aviation fuel energy intensity and its carbon emission coefficient of civil aviation transportation industry,so that this method is more suitable for carbon emission estimation of transportation industry;Further analyze the decoupling status of carbon emissions,transportation turnover,and transportation revenue in the civil aviation transportation industry.Finally,propose seven possible future scenarios and predict carbon emissions for each of them.Finally,an empirical study was carried out,taking nine representative civil aviation transport enterprises in China from 2016 to 2021 as the research object,and the horizontal and vertical efficiency measurements were carried out respectively.The results showed that the COVID-19 epidemic had a significant impact on the business process of Chinese civil aviation transport enterprises,especially in the production stage.The main impact of the "dual carbon" strategy was in the service stage,and some transport enterprises responded sensitively;Based on the macro data of China’s civil aviation transportation industry from2012 to 2021,it was found that the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and transportation development in China’s civil aviation transportation industry is not ideal;We have designed an external carbon offsetting strategy for purchasing carbon sinks,combined with internal emission reduction strategies such as increasing the proportion of long-distance transportation,improving energy efficiency,and replacing biofuels.We use an improved STIRPAT model based on scenario analysis to predict the carbon peak time of China’s civil aviation transportation industry.