Study On The Spatiotemporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions In China's Civil Aviation Passenger Transport

In the context of global warming and other increasingly prominent environmental issues and the international community's focus on carbon emissions,China's civil aviation industry will continue to maintain rapid development for a considerable period of time.The low-carbon development of China's civil aviation industry is imperative.Firstly,based on the relevant data and parameters of China's civil aviation industry and civil aircraft,the carbon emissions of civil aviation passenger transport from 2000 to2018 were calculated,and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions were analyzed.Secondly,with the help of the Kaya identity and the grey correlation method,the factors affecting the carbon emissions of China's civil aviation passenger transport are analyzed.Thirdly,the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis were used to predict the carbon emissions of Chinese civil aviation passenger transport from 2019 to 2050 and find the peak and its occurrence year.It provides a theoretical reference for the low-carbon development of China's civil aviation industry.The main conclusions are as follows:1)From 2000 to 2018,the overall carbon emissions of China's civil aviation passenger transport showed a fluctuating growth trend,increasing from 13.22 million tons to 151.65 million tons,an increase of 1047.02%.Per capita carbon emissions showed a fluctuating growth trend,increasing from 197.79kg/person to 239.90kg/person,an increase of 21.29%.The carbon emission intensity showed an overall downward trend,decreasing from 1.73kg/ton kilometers to 0.92kg/ton kilometers,with a decrease of 0.81kg/ton kilometers.China's civil aviation passenger transport carbon emissions Hirschman Index(HHI)overall showed a trend of decline,but still belong to high oligopolistic ? type,there are large difference between the regional HHI is but a downward trend.2)The gap in the carbon emissions of passenger transport in the four regions of East,Central,West and Northeast is widening.The carbon emissions of civil aviation passenger transportation are divided into five emission levels: low,lower,medium,higher and high.The regional changes in the four time points of each region in 2000,2006,2012,and 2018 are as follows: eastern region(lower-middle-high-high),centralregion(low-low-lower-middle),western region(low-lower-middle-high),northeast region(low-low-low-lower),presented by low-to-high evolutionary trends.The continuous increase and upgrading of prefecture-level city airports is one of the driving forces for the development of carbon emissions of civil aviation passenger transport in various regions.3)The main influencing factors of passenger carbon emissions in China's civil aviation are listed in order of influence degree: civil aviation passenger turnover,fuel consumption,economic development level,and population size.4)In the scenario W and scenario N of China's civil aviation passenger transport,carbon emissions peaked in 2048(21375.12 million tons)and 2041(19375.46 million tons)respectively,but in order to meet the goal of China's overall carbon emissions peaking in 2030,the scenario N is the development of China's civil aviation passenger transportation in the high-speed development scenario more in line with development expectations.