Influence Factors Analysis And Prediction Study Of Transportation Carbon Emissions In The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

At present,China’s environmental problems are particularly prominent,and promoting the transformation of low-carbon industry has become the focus of attention of all industries.Under the social background of being a strong transportation country and high quality development of transportation,the transportation industry has already become the pillar industry of China’s economic development.Therefore,it undertakes great pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction.As a national strategic highland,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has seen an increasing trend in energy consumption and carbon emissions in the transportation industry.The low-carbon development of the regional transportation industry is facing a new bottleneck.Thus,while ensuring stable economic development,it has become an inevitable requirement for regional social development to commit to building a green and low-carbon transportation development model.This paper takes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object,analyzes the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the transportation industry,measures the decoupling effect and predicts the carbon emissions of transportation industry,as well as proposes a coordinated emission reduction policy in line with regional development.Firstly,this paper introduces the conversion turnover into the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method to analyze the influencing factors,and uses this model to decompose the carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transportation industry into carbon emission coefficient effects,energy intensity effects,transportation intensity effect,per capita GDP and population effect.The results show that the energy structure effect of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei changes steadily year by year,and have little impact on traffic carbon emissions.We can find that Beijing energy intensity effect promotes carbon emission growth,while in Tianjin and Hebei,the effect is inhibited;the annual effect of industry structure in the three regions is mostly shown to inhibit the growth of carbon emissions;per capita GDP and population have always played a role in promoting carbon emissions,and the role of per capita GDP is particularly obvious..Then,based on the Tapio elastic decoupling theory,the decoupling measure model is established to study the decoupling state between the carbon emissions and economic growth of the transportation industry in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from 2001 to 2015.It can be seen from the measurement results that the relationship between the carbon emissions and the economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in Beijing and Hebei is greater than that in Tianjin.The relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in the transportation industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is weakly decoupled and expanded negatively decoupled for most years.This relationship is growth linkage and strong decoupling in a few years.The EKC curve of carbon emission and economic growth is roughly in the form of "N".That is to say,carbon emissions increase first and then decrease with economic growth,indicating that the transportation industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is still in the development stage and has not reached the green development model.Finally,we use scenario analysis method and set the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario as well as the contribution-based synergetic low-carbon scenario.Based on the decomposition factor of the influencing factors,this paper establishes a nonlinear regression prediction model,and the trend of carbon emission change in the transportation industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2016-2040 is predicted under three scenarios.The results show that the traffic carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a rapid rise in 2016-2030 under three scenarios.After reaching the peak carbon emission in 2030,all three scenarios have gradually declined.By 2040,the carbon emissions under the contribution-based synergetic low-carbon scenario will be reduced by 16.53% compared with the baseline scenario,and by 8.63% compared with the low-carbon scenario,and based on the research results,practical and feasible synergy development proposals are proposed.