Study On Influencing Factors And Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emissions From Civil Buildings In Yunnan Province

The"30,60"carbon peak and carbon neutral target proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping is an important initiative to address global climate change in China.As one of the key elements of the double carbon work in the construction field,the carbon reduction potential of civil buildings has yet to be explored.At the same time,Yunnan Province,as one of the first low-carbon pilot province points,the carbon reduction potential of civil buildings can not only make the provincial economic structure low-carbon,but also provide successful examples and driving effects for neighboring provinces.To this end,the article takes 2010-2019 as the research scope,firstly,the carbon emission factor method is used to measure the energy consumption and emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan Province to understand the current development of energy consumption and emissions;subsequently,the LMDI model is constructed based on the carbon emission measurement results to explore the quantitative impact of various economic,social and energy subdivision factors on the carbon emissions of civil buildings;finally Based on the analysis results of the influencing factors of carbon emissions and the need of scenario analysis,a LEAP scenario analysis model is constructed to study the peak trend of carbon emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan Province under three different scenarios of baseline,low promotion of policy energy saving and high intensification.This study aims to provide theoretical support for proposing scientific and reasonable energy saving and carbon reduction and peak attainment recommendations for civil buildings in Yunnan Province through the above quantitative analysis.The main findings and conclusions of the study are as follows:（1）Between 2010 and 2019,the carbon emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan Province increased by 360,000 tons of CO₂,with an average annual growth rate of0.19%,showing an overall characteristic of"small increase and insignificant upward trend";the energy consumption of coal in civil buildings in Yunnan Province decreased from 29%to 18%,while the energy consumption of electricity increased from 65%to 76%,the energy consumption structure shows electrification,and the energy structure shows the trend of primary energy low carbonization;in 2019,the energy consumption intensity per unit area of public buildings is 16.84kgce/m²,while the energy consumption intensity of urban residential buildings and rural residential buildings is only 2.21kgce/m²and 3.92kgce/m²,and public buildings,due to their large energy consumption,their energy The gap between the energy intensity per unit area of public buildings and residential buildings is very obvious.（2）Among the factors influencing the carbon emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan Province,the economic and per capita floor area effects are the two main factors causing the growth of carbon emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan Province,contributing 143,000 tons of CO₂in total,and the energy intensity effect is the main factor inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions,contributing-76,900 tons of CO₂in total.Although the development of tertiary industry and the increase of per capita building area can significantly increase the carbon emission of civil buildings in Yunnan Province,the decrease of energy intensity can offset part of the increase of carbon emission.The reason for this is the sharp reduction of coal power generation in Yunnan Province,and the reduced coal power generation is filled by renewable energy power generation,which leads to the decrease of carbon emission factor of electricity and then the decrease of energy intensity.As for the three building types of civil buildings,the decrease of carbon emission of urban residential buildings is mainly related to the decrease of energy intensity per unit area and the change of power generation in Yunnan Province;the increase of carbon emission of rural residential buildings is mainly related to the increase of energy intensity per unit area;the increase of carbon emission of public buildings is mainly related to the energy consumption caused by the increase of added value of tertiary industry.（3）Under the baseline,low-promotion and high-intensification scenarios,the carbon emissions of residential buildings in Yunnan province peak between 2027 and2030,with the peak size ranging from 1981.4 million tons CO₂to 2055.42 million tons CO₂.Among them,carbon emissions peak first under the high policy energy efficiency intensification scenario,followed by the low policy energy efficiency promotion scenario,and latest under the baseline scenario.In terms of the current development trend of Yunnan Province,the trend of carbon emissions after the peak in the baseline scenario is not significant,which is not conducive to the achievement of subsequent carbon neutrality targets.Compared with the baseline scenario,the carbon emissions under the low-promotion and high-intensification scenarios show a rapid reduction after the peak,with an overall reduction potential of about 535,700tons CO₂and 740,200 tons CO₂,respectively,and both policy energy efficiency scenarios are conducive to a better and faster green transition in Yunnan Province.The differences in peak attainment between the three scenarios are mainly reflected in the energy use of the two terminal branches of cooking,lighting and other electrical appliances,especially the coal branch of the cooking sector in rural residential buildings and the electricity branch in public buildings,both of which account for more than 50%of the total carbon emissions of each building type.Based on the above,the carbon emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan Province have been controlled to some extent during 2010-2019 thanks to corresponding policy measures,but the growth momentum of carbon emissions from public buildings and rural residential buildings has not been weakened.Based on this,this paper proposes policy recommendations to shift the focus of carbon reduction in civil buildings,adjust the energy use structure,develop renewable energy,promote the electrification of rural residential buildings,reasonably plan the development scale of civil buildings and balance the relationship between buildings and the tertiary industry,in order to promote civil buildings in Yunnan Province to achieve the peak target.