Study On Building Carbon Emission Prediction Model And Zero Carbonization Path In Solar Energy Rich Area

Since the Industrial Revolution,the global climate has changed significantly due to the acceleration of the industrialization process and the memory of human economic and social prosperity and development,as well as the continuous improvement of social productivity and living standards.As global temperatures continue to rise,the world faces severe pressure to reduce carbon emissions.Since 2007,China has surpassed the United States to become the country with the highest carbon emissions in the world.In response to the huge international pressure on carbon reduction,in 2020,at the seventy-fifth ses-sion of the United Nations General Assembly,it was proposed that"China should strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060".Through the analysis of various studies,the construction field,as one of the three major fields of energy consumption（industry,construction,and trans-portation）,is the key and focus on the road to low-carbon and zero-carbon in China.As a solar energy enrichment area with rich solar energy resources and relatively high renew-able energy utilization rate in China,it has the natural advantage of achieving rapid carbon reduction in the construction field.This study takes the solar energy enrichment area as the research object,and obtains the current situation of building carbon emissions in this area by establishing the building carbon emission accounting model.At the same time,according to the development planning of solar energy enrichment areas,LEAP model and scenario analysis method are used to predict the building carbon emissions and de-velopment trend under different scenarios of solar energy enrichment areas,providing decision-making reference for the establishment of zero-carbon development path of buildings in solar energy enrichment areas.The specific research contents and conclu-sions are as follows:First of all,the research is based on the energy balance table,and through the disassembly and modification of the terminal energy consumption,the macro accounting model of the building carbon emissions in the solar energy enrichment area is established,and the current situation of the building carbon emissions in the solar energy enrichment area is calculated.At the same time,the LMDI factor decomposition method is used to quantitatively analyze the carbon emissions of buildings in solar energy enrichment areas and identify the main influencing factors.Secondly,LEAP（Low emission analysis platform）model is used to divide the terminal energy consumption department in the building use process into several energy consumption units,and decompose the carbon emissions of the building terminal in the solar energy rich area.After that,based on the scenario analysis method,according to the development planning of the solar energy en-richment area,the scenario analysis scheme is set,and combined with the LEAP model,the relevant parameters under each scenario are quantitatively set,and the prediction anal-ysis is carried out.Finally,the development trend of building carbon emissions in the solar energy enrichment area under four scenarios is obtained.Finally,through the com-parison of building carbon emission reduction under different carbon reduction technol-ogies,the focus and development direction of achieving carbon neutrality in the construc-tion field of solar energy enrichment areas are obtained,and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the zero-carbonization path of buildings in solar energy enrichment areas.The research results show that:（1）The total carbon emission of buildings in solar energy enrichment areas in 2020is 12.4498 million t CO₂e.Among them,the carbon emission of public buildings is 6.0613million t CO₂e,the carbon emission of urban residential buildings is 5.2926 million t CO₂e,and the carbon emission of rural residential buildings is 1.0959 million t CO₂e.（2）The three influencing factors of per capita building area,energy consumption intensity per unit area,and carbon emissions per unit energy consumption are the main driving factors for building carbon emissions in solar energy enriched areas,and the influence of per capita building area gradually increases over time.At the same time,the carbon reduction effect of building unit area energy consumption intensity is gradually increasing.（3）Under the baseline scenario,the peak time of building carbon emissions in the solar energy enrichment area is 2037,and the peak level of carbon emissions is 27.7949million t CO₂e.Under the policy control scenario,the peak level of carbon emissions in the construction sector can be achieved in 2033,with a peak level of 20.299 million t CO₂e.Under the low carbon scenario,the peak level of carbon emissions in the construction sector can be achieved in 2029,with a carbon emission of 15.5797 million t CO₂e,Under the carbon-neutralization scenario,buildings will reach the peak level of building carbon in 2021 and achieve carbon-neutralization before 2060.With the deepening of the scenario,the peak time of building carbon emissions in solar energy enrichment areas will gradually advance,and its peak level will also decrease.（4）Through the combination of different technical strategies under the constraint of the dual-carbon target,the carbon reduction effect of energetically developing solar PV and promoting ultra-low energy consumption buildings on buildings in solar energy enrichment areas is obtained.At the same time,it is concluded that further energy-saving transformation of existing buildings on the basis of the development of solar photovoltaic and the promotion of ultra-low energy consumption buildings can achieve the carbon peak in the construction field as soon as possible.This study obtains the peak of carbon emissions in the construction field under different scenarios through the current situation accounting and scenario prediction of building carbon emissions in solar energy enrichment areas.Through the integration and selection of relevant technical measures for strategic integration to verify the emission reduction effect of different combinations,the path system of building carbon emissions in solar energy enrichment areas can be obtained,providing policy recommendations for the construction sector in the region to achieve zero carbon.