Research On The Carbon Peak Path In The Urban And Rural Construction Field Of Shandong Provinc

The situation of carbon emissions in urban and rural construction in Shandong Province is relatively severe.As of 2019,the carbon emissions in urban and rural construction in Shandong Province have exceeded 200 million tons,ranking the forefront among various provinces in China.It is extremely urgent to develop a reasonable and effective carbon peak implementation plan.This study calculates the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the urban and rural construction field in Shandong Province to obtain the peak years and peaks of carbon in Shandong Province under different scenarios.The purpose of this study is to provide decision-making reference for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the urban and rural construction field in Shandong Province and various cities,and to assist in the energy conservation and carbon reduction work in the urban and rural construction field and the smooth realization of the dual carbon goals during the "14th Five Year Plan" and "15th Five Year Plan" periods in Shandong Province.Based on the theory of carbon emissions during the entire life cycle of buildings,and in combination with the requirements of the topic "Research on Energy Consumption and Carbon Peak Paths in the Field of Urban and Rural Construction in Shandong Province" by the Department of Housing and Urban and Rural Construction of Shandong Province,this study first clarified the carbon emission boundary in the field of urban and rural construction in Shandong Province,and took the carbon emissions in three stages of urban and rural construction as the research object.Through literature research,the influencing factors of carbon emissions in different stages were identified;Secondly,on the basis of identifying the influencing factors of carbon emissions at different stages,a STIRPAT model of carbon emissions in the field of urban and rural construction in Shandong Province was constructed,and the parameters were identified using the basic data of carbon emissions in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2019;Thirdly,combined with the development plan of building energy conservation in Shandong Province,three scenarios of carbon emissions in the urban and rural construction field in Shandong Province were set using scenario analysis method.Through indicator data prediction,the year and peak value of carbon emissions in the urban and rural construction field in Shandong Province were calculated under different scenarios;Finally,taking 2030 as the carbon peak year in Shandong Province,the key tasks for realizing the carbon peak path in the field of urban and rural construction in Shandong Province are proposed.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)The core of carbon emissions in urban and rural construction is carbon emissions from construction operations.As of 2019,the carbon emissions from urban and rural construction in Shandong Province were 217 million tons of carbon dioxide,mainly from construction operations.Therefore,the prerequisite for achieving peak carbon emissions in urban and rural construction is building operation carbon emissions;(2)The results of the STIRPAT model show that the influencing factors of carbon emissions in urban and rural construction areas in Shandong Province are in descending order: permanent population,energy intensity,urbanization rate,carbon emissions from electricity,per capita building area,and non electricity consumption;(3)The scenario analysis results show that under the baseline scenario,carbon reached a peak in 2040,with a peak of 287 million tons;Under the energy-saving scenario,the carbon peak will reach 265 million tons in 2035;Under the total amount control scenario,carbon will reach its peak in 2030,with a peak of 255 million tons.Therefore,the goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030 cannot be achieved only through building energy conservation,and it is necessary to achieve the peak through electricity cleaning and coordination;(4)The main tasks of achieving carbon peak in Shandong Province in 2030 are: implementing 83%energy-saving design standards for new residential buildings in 2023,and implementing 78%energy-saving design standards for new public buildings in 2025;During the "13th Five Year Plan" period,the energy efficiency of existing public buildings was improved by 30 million square meters,and the energy efficiency of existing residential buildings was improved by 50 million square meters.After that,every five years,the renovation area increased by 20 million square meters compared to the previous five-year plan period;By 2025,the renewable energy substitution rate will not be less than 10.5%,and by 2030,the renewable energy substitution rate will not be less than 12.5%.