Selection Of The Development Path Of Green Housing In Xi’an Under The Carbon Peak Target

The emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide has caused the gradual intensification of global warming.In the 14 th Five-Year Plan,our country has put forward the vision of achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.The pressure for energy conservation and emission reduction is increasing day by day.The "Action Plan for Carbon Peaking before 2030" issued by the State Council puts forward hard requirements for the development of green buildings,and the construction field,as an important field of energy conservation and emission reduction,has greater emission reduction potential and lower carbon emission reduction costs.Therefore,green buildings are regarded as the development focus of energy conservation and emission reduction in the construction field,and the impact of different paths of green building development on the carbon emissions of residential buildings is simulated and predicted,and then the optimal green building development path is determined,which is of great significance to the realization of the carbon peaking goal in 2030.The thesis takes Xi’an’s residential buildings as the research object,analyzes the influencing factors of the carbon emissions of residential buildings in Xi’an,and simulates and predicts the carbon emissions on this basis,and then analyzes the development path of green buildings under the carbon peak target,which provides data support and theoretical support for the realization of the carbon peak of residential buildings in Xi’an,and at the same time has reference significance for other cities.Based on the “3E” theory and system dynamics theory,the thesis uses the system dynamics model to establish a carbon emission model of residential buildings in Xi’an from the four aspects of society,economy,green building development,and energy.The influencing factors and variables related to the development path of green buildings are set in scenarios,and a better green residential development path is selected through the simulation results.First of all,the paper uses the literature research method to select the main influencing factors affecting the carbon emissions of buildings based on the actual situation in Xi’an;then through causal loop analysis and variable setting to establish a model of the carbon emission system of residential buildings in Xi’an;finally,the model is simulated and simulated by setting the proportion of new green houses in each city and the relevant parameters of energy-saving transformation of existing buildings to dynamically simulate and predict the carbon emissions of residential buildings under each scenario,analyze the dynamic changes in carbon emissions,and choose a reasonable path for the development of green buildings.The main conclusions of the article research are as follows:(1)According to the simulation forecast of the benchmark scenario,according to the existing development model,the carbon emissions of residential buildings in Xi’an will still be on the rise in 2040,and the carbon peak target of 2030 will not be achieved.(2)Through the regulation of the proportion of new green houses in each star and the regulation of energy-saving transformation of existing buildings,the peak time of carbon emissions can be controlled in 2029,but the latter has a poor carbon reduction effect;through the comprehensive regulation of the energy-saving transformation plans of existing buildings that can achieve the carbon peak goal and the proportion of new green houses,it is found that the carbon peak time can be controlled as early as 2029,and the carbon reduction effect can be effectively improved.Based on the research conclusions,the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from the four aspects of the financial subsidy system,the promotion policy of green buildings,the optimization of stock buildings,and the sharing of building energy consumption data to ensure that the proportion of high-star green housing can be promoted while accelerating the transformation of existing buildings,and the goal of reaching the peak carbon in Xi’an by 2030 can be achieved as soon as possible.