Research On System Modeling And Evaluation Of Green Development In China

Green growth is a new economy concept in response to the global economy crisis and climate change in recent years. When the green development strategy is taken as a new engine of growth, the crucial question centering on it is how strong the green policy or regulation should be. To avoid economic underperformance with stricter green regulations, the government should design and implement a smart and dynamical policy package. Its performances should also be measured and evaluated in a dynamic model. But the current study often ignores this, more study focus on the evaluation of current situation, evaluating green development in a dynamic way means a lot strengthening the study on the theory and method. Based on the above analysis and system dynamics theory, this thesis design a system dynamic model of China’s green development, the model is composed of economic subsystem, environment subsystem and policy subsystem. Green investment rate as a control variable, operating model to find out the gap between China’s current economy and the green economy, in order to provide basic theory and feedback of green development for policy makers. The system dynamics model of China’s green development can be used as a simulation and evaluation platform, by constantly adjust and perfect use for a long time.After running the SD model, this thesis computes the realized green investment rate. Using this rate as the weight, the green welfare index and green growth index during1992-2011in China is computed. Results show:(1) China’s current green development gap is0.6, in another word, China’s current economy deviate from the green growth path, and green investment is obviously not enough;(2) the welfare level, policy influence, green development level has increased, also the realized green investment and the optimal dynamic green investment are getting closing. China is striding forward to the target that is coordinated growth of economy and environment.Although countries with different economic and political conditions face different challenges and opportunities on the way to green growth, whatever the condition is, there are some common problems needed to be solved. No matter in what situation each policy are required to cover a wide range of a series of policy, not just the traditional "green" policy. This thesis provides some suggestions on policy, laws and regulations, green investment, market mechanism and green innovation, so as to provide some reference for policy makers in China.