Research On Carbon Emission Peak Mechanism And Carbon Emission Peak Path From The Perspective Of System Coupling And Coordination Development

Human society’s economic activities have triggered a huge demand for energy,which not only led to a significant increase in carbon emissions but also exacerbated global climate change.Some developed countries have already achieved their carbon peak,which means that as the economy grows rapidly,most of the world’s carbon emissions will be generated by developing countries.China,as the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter,faces significant challenges in achieving carbon emission peak.This is not only related to domestic sustainable development but also has a profound impact on the global response to climate change.Therefore,countries are seeking to reduce carbon emissions while achieving socioeconomic development.Exploring the coupling and coordination development mechanism between the socioeconomic system and the energy system is of great significance for achieving carbon emission peak.Accordingly,this study first analyzes the driving factors of carbon emissions during the carbon emission peak process in countries that have already achieved carbon emission peak from multiple dimensions.On this basis,a comprehensive evaluation framework for the socioeconomic-energy system is constructed to discuss the carbon emission peak mechanism in typical developed countries from the perspective of system coupling and coordination development.After drawing relevant experiences,further research focuses on China as a developing country that has not yet achieved carbon emission peak,in combination with its current stage of development.By refining the socioeconomic system,the mechanism of regional carbon emission peak under the perspective of coupling and coordination between the urbanization system,industrialization system,and energy system in China’s provincial regions is explored,aiming to provide a multi-dimensional analytical framework and regulatory path for achieving carbon emission peak goals.This study also proposes corresponding policy suggestions.This research not only offers a new perspective for China to achieve carbon emission peak but also provides references for other developing countries at different stages of economic development that have not yet achieved carbon emission peak.This paper mainly contains the following four parts:(1)To deeply explore the carbon emission peak mechanism under the perspective of coordination development between the socioeconomic and energy systems,a multi-dimensional analysis of the driving factors affecting carbon emissions is conducted for typical developed countries ten years before and after carbon emission peak.First,the LMDI decomposition model is used to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions,identifying the main driving factors affecting carbon emissions during the carbon emission peak process in typical developed countries,including: energy structure,energy intensity,level of economic development,population size,level of urbanization,proportion of rural population,energy structure,proportions of primary,secondary,and tertiary industries.The STIRPAT extension model is further used to analyze how economic growth,technological progress,and population change jointly affect carbon emissions,revealing the more complex interactions between socioeconomics and the environment.The results show that in typical developed countries,population size and urbanization rate are the main driving factors for increasing carbon emissions.The adjustment of industrial structure has played a significant role in reducing carbon emissions.For developing countries,the increase in population size has a significant positive driving effect on carbon emissions.The ARDL model is used to explore the short and long-term impacts of driving factors on carbon emissions,providing a temporal dimension reference for the impact of driving factors on carbon emissions.The results show that in the long run,per capita GDP,population growth,and urbanization rate are the main factors increasing carbon emissions in typical developed countries.The proportion of non-fossil energy and the improvement of energy intensity contribute the most to reducing carbon emissions.In typical developing countries,the increase in population has a more significant positive driving effect on carbon emissions,while the increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry and the optimization of industrial structure have a more significant carbon emission reduction effect in the short term.The research results provide an important reference for constructing a comprehensive index framework later in the paper.(2)The massive consumption of fossil energy has promoted rapid socioeconomic development,which is accompanied by a decline in energy demand,improvement in energy efficiency,and optimization of the energy structure.Achieving carbon emission peak requires coordinating the interaction between socioeconomic development and energy consumption.Currently,no research has linked the coupling state between the socioeconomic system and the energy system with carbon emission peak.This study takes ten typical developed countries as research objects,establishes a comprehensive evaluation framework consisting of 13 socioeconomic system indicators and energy system indicators,measures the coupling and coordination relationship between the two systems ten years before and after carbon emission peak in these countries,and discusses the carbon emission peak mechanism in typical developed countries from the perspective of system coupling and coordination development.The results show that in typical developed countries,the interaction level and quality of action between the socioeconomic system and the energy system are at a higher level,with both coupling and coordination levels greater than 0.85.The comprehensive coupling degree of the two systems is consistent with the trend of carbon emissions,approximating the carbon emission trajectory.The optimal coupling state of the two systems is conducive to achieving carbon emission peak.This reveals the role of coordination development between the socioeconomic system and the energy system in typical developed countries in achieving carbon emission peak,providing a reference for countries that have not yet achieved carbon emission peak.(3)By constructing a comprehensive framework containing 21 indicators to evaluate the coupling and coordination development of the Urbanization-Industrialization-Energy(UIE)coupling system,and linking it to the carbon emission trajectories of 30 provincial regions in China,the complex impact mechanism of the coupling level and coordination level on carbon emissions from2000 to 2021 is deeply explored.Through temporal and spatial dimensional analysis,it is found that the coupling level shows an inverted "U" shape change,while the coordination level shifts from rapid growth to steady growth;the comprehensive coupling level gradually moves towards the upper right corner of the quadrant diagram,but most regions have not reached the turning point.Urbanization and industrialization gradually reduce their dependence on energy consumption but have not fully decoupled from carbon emissions,indicating that most regions have not yet achieved the carbon emission peak.The study also reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in the coordination level among Chinese provincial regions,showing "high-high" and "low-low" clustering patterns,and identifies the number of private cars,per capita energy consumption,urban per capita disposable income,and energy intensity as key factors affecting the coordination level of the UIE system.These driving factors show significant temporal and spatial differences in different regions and periods,emphasizing the necessity of formulating differentiated carbon emission reduction policies.(4)By analyzing the socioeconomic foundation of Chinese provincial regions in achieving the carbon emission peak goal and combining the aforementioned research results,it is concluded that achieving carbon emission peak requires a certain socioeconomic foundation.China’s 30 provincial regions are further divided into economically developed,moderately developed,and less developed areas,and carbon emission peak paths and policy suggestions are proposed for different development levels.From the perspective of coordination development between the socioeconomic system and the energy system,it is pointed out that economically developed regions should increase the research and application of green low-carbon technologies,optimize the energy structure,promote the green transformation of industries,and improve the level of intelligent city management;economically moderately developed regions need to increase the proportion of the tertiary industry and promote energy efficiency improvement;economically less developed regions should gradually transition to focusing on energy efficiency improvement,industrial structure optimization,and technological innovation.Reducing dependence on traditional high-carbon energy sources,changing production models,and increasing the proportion of clean energy in the energy structure are necessary.Drawing on the successful experience of economically developed regions,the proposed differentiated carbon emission reduction strategies and measures will help China achieve carbon emission peak earlier and provide references for other countries or regions that have not yet achieved carbon emission peak.