Research On Carbon Emission Peak Prediction And Emission Reduction Path In Chongqing

Located in the southwest of China,Chongqing is an important manufacturing base in China with a good industrial foundation.To assist in the new journey,Chongqing needs to accelerate its high-quality development path and create a new open highland for the inland economy in the west against the background of stable economic growth.The issue of carbon emissions is an important driving force restricting the economic and social development of Chongqing.In particular,it is necessary to understand the historical situation of carbon emissions,future expectations,and emission reduction paths.Solving these problems is an important part of promoting Chongqing’s future economic development and industrial innovation.This article selects Chongqing’s carbon emissions as the research object,and the main research content includes carbon emission history,carbon emission peak prediction,and carbon emission reduction path.This article first introduces the carbon emission measurement methods,including total amount measurement,industry specific measurement,and energy specific measurement.It is concluded that Chongqing’s historical carbon emissions have experienced peaks,but recently there has been a trend of growth again.The basis for using coal energy as the main energy source has not changed,with the second industry accounting for the highest emissions,and the third industry accounting for a gradual increase in emissions;Secondly,using the LMDI factorization model,it preliminarily demonstrates that the proportion of coal in energy consumption,economic level,per capita GDP,industrial structure,and energy intensity are the main influencing factors;Thirdly,the STIRPAT model is used to simulate the carbon emissions of Chongqing,and the coefficients of various influencing factors are obtained based on this model.The most important factors are the level of economic development,energy intensity,and urbanization rate;Fourth,based on the above information,judge the development of various influencing factors in 2021-2050,and set up three scenarios to predict.The conclusion is that,from the perspective of carbon emission peak,the carbon emission value under the strong low-carbon scenario will decrease by 7302100 tons compared to the 2030 carbon emission value under the stable economic development-strong low-carbon scenario,and decrease by 9.4608 million tons compared to the 2028 carbon emission value under the strong low-carbon scenario.Secondly,from the perspective of emission reduction effectiveness,the effect of the stable economic development low carbon scenario is better,which is due to the more reasonable arrangement of population size,urbanization rate,gross national product,and energy intensity in the process of emission reduction,which can continuously lay the foundation for emission reduction and economic development,making the emission reduction effect superior to the two scenarios of stable economic development strong low carbon scenario and strong low carbon scenario,By 2050,the carbon emissions under the stable economic development-low carbon scenario are 22.83 million tons lower than those under the stable economic development-strong low carbon scenario,and 27.64 million tons lower than those under the strong low carbon scenario;Finally,suggestions are proposed to strengthen research on carbon emissions trading and carbon tax policies,and increase investment in green technology innovation.Suggestions are proposed to conduct low-carbon manufacturing in industry,optimize the transportation structure in the transportation industry,and encourage green travel for the industrial structure.Suggestions are proposed to promote low-carbon transformation of the energy and electricity structure,implement re electrification development policies,and improve the energy market system and mechanism for the energy structure.