Study On Spatiotemporal Changes And Prediction Of Land Ecosystem Service Value In Ganzhou City

The ecological environment is a medium and channel that provides ecological elements,structures,functions,and products to humans,and its service level is very important.But with the development of society,the reduction of ecological land area has significantly reduced the level of ecosystem services in some regions,affecting the construction of ecological civilization.This article analyzes the characteristics of land use change based on remote sensing images of land use classification in Ganzhou City.Then,based on the land use type area,ecosystem service value coefficient,and regional biological correction factor for each period,the ecosystem service level is obtained,and the ecosystem service value is described from different service functions,scales,and adjacent townships.Finally,based on the development status of Ganzhou City,13 driving factors were selected from the perspective of land use,and the GeoSOS-FLUS model parameters were set with reference to the past land use change characteristics of Ganzhou City.The land use types under four development models in Ganzhou City in 2030 were predicted,and the spatiotemporal changes and differences in ecosystem service value were obtained based on the land use type area under different development models.It is intended to provide certain reference for promoting the rational use of land in the research area,achieving ecological environment protection,sustainable economic and social development,and urban-rural construction.The main research findings are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,six types of land use in Ganzhou City have undergone varying degrees of change,with an increase in the area of construction land and farmland,and a decrease in the area of unused land,forest land,water bodies,and grasslands.The mutual transformation between land use types is not single.The main source of construction land is farmland,followed by forest land.The decrease in forest land area is converted to farmland,with the most significant increase in construction land in Nankang District and Zhanggong District.The overall development of cities and towns in Ganzhou City has been accelerating,while the overall degree of land use index in other towns has changed slightly,and land use has tended to be stable.(2)Overall,the level of ecosystem services in Ganzhou City is extremely high,with the value of ecosystem services first increasing and then decreasing,with a decrease rate of2.10%.The primary service functions mainly focus on regulation,followed by support services.The value of these two functions is consistent with the overall trend of changes in Ganzhou City.The overall spatial variation of the value of the secondary township service system tends to be stable,without large-scale mutations.The service level of the upstream Ganjiang River basin township ecosystem has decreased,and the ecological environment in the southeast direction is extremely stable.The global spatial autocorrelation of the ecosystem service value per unit area of townships in Ganzhou City is significant,with small spatial differences,high interdependence,and significant clustering between adjacent townships.(3)Compared with 2020,the construction land area under all four development models has increased,with the largest and consistent increase in construction land area under the2030 benchmark and protected forest land development models.In the future,construction land will mainly come from the conversion of farmland.Under the benchmark development model,the ecosystem service value increases,and its service value falls between the protection of forest land and the protection of farmland and forest land development model.In the future,towns in the upstream Ganjiang River basin will be significantly affected by human activities and the level of ecosystem services will decrease.The spatial differences in coordination and balance between the development model of benchmark and protected farmland and forest land in townships are very small,and the distribution and quantity are almost consistent.In summary,Ganzhou City has been committed to the sustainable development path of protecting farmland and forest land.