Research On The Impact Of Land Use Change Simulation On Ecosystem Service Value In Mountainous And Hilly Regions

With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather around the world and the rapid increase in population,people are paying more and more attention to the ecological environment.In land use management,it is particularly important to coordinate the relationship between land development and protection.The mountainous and hilly areas in the south are an important ecological barrier for the country,and they play a very important role in safeguarding our country’s ecological security.As a typical southern mountainous and hilly area,Wan’an County is an important ecological barrier area in the Ganjiang River Basin.Based on the third-phase land use data of Wan’an County,this paper analyzes the land use/cover change in Wan’an County from the dynamics of land use and land use transfer,and selects 14 land-use changes that affect Wan’an County based on actual conditions.Driving factor,based on the driving factor to generate the transition probability file,and verify the accuracy of the FLUS model,and the Kappa coefficient is 0.91,which has high accuracy.After setting four scenarios,simulate the distribution of land use in Wan’an County under different scenarios in 2050,and use the modified value equivalent method to calculate the ecosystem service value of Wan’an County under different scenarios,and obtain The quantity and spatial distribution of ecosystem service value in An County under different scenarios.It serves as an early warning for areas where the ecosystem service value of Wan’an County has declined severely.It is conducive to protecting Wan’an County and the entire Ganjiang River Basin ecosystem.At the same time,it can help Wan’an County’s land use development and protection in 2050.Provide theoretical basis for environmental protection decision-making.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)In the land use structure of Wan’an County,forest land accounts for the largest proportion,followed by cultivated land area,water area and grassland area are equivalent,and the smallest is construction land.The single dynamic degree of construction land in Wan’an County from 2010 to 2018 was 3.46%,and the cultivated land was 0.It shows that between2010 and 2018,the urbanization process of Wan’an County has been accelerating,and the protection effect of cultivated land is obvious.(2)According to the land use transfer matrix,Wan’an County transferred the largest area of forest land to other land use types from2010 to 2018,totaling 3,768.12 hectares,of which the area transferred to cultivated land was the largest.In the past eight years,arable land has transferred 2778.03 hectares to the other four types of land,most of which have been transferred to forest land.Grassland transferred547.02 hectares to other four types of land,mainly to forest land.(3)Using FLUS model to simulate land use in Wan’an County,the Kappa coefficient obtained is 0.91.It shows that the simulation here is relatively successful,with a certain degree of scientificity and credibility,and it also shows that the simulation accuracy of the FLUS model is high and it has a certain degree of universality.(4)From 2010 to 2018,the value of ecosystem services in Wan’an County decreased by 44.23 million yuan,an average annual decrease of 5.5288 million yuan.In addition,the ecosystem service value of Wan’an County declined faster in the later period than in the early period,indicating that Wan’an County’s land use method was relatively extensive,and the rapid development of urbanization also brought the destruction of the ecosystem service value.(5)In Wan’an County in 2050,the ecosystem service value under four scenarios,from high to low,are comprehensive development scenario,ecological protection scenario,cultivated land protection scenario,and natural development scenario.Among them,the value of ecosystem services in the comprehensive development scenario is the highest,reaching15.50381 billion yuan,15.48608 billion yuan under the cultivated land protection scenario,and 15.49646 billion yuan under the ecological protection scenario.The ecosystem service value under the natural development scenario is the lowest,which is 15.46932 billion yuan,33.8591 million yuan less than the comprehensive development scenario,16.75337 million yuan less than the cultivated land protection scenario,and 27.134 million yuan less than the ecological protection scenario.It shows that the ecological protection red line and the cultivated land protection red line have obvious effects on the protection of ecosystem service value.