Analysis And Prediction Of The Spatio-temporal Changes Of Ecosystem Service Value In Nanchang City Based On LUCC

Based on the land use data in Nanchang in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2018,this thesis analyzes the characteristics of Land Use/Cover Change(LUCC)in Nanchang from a novel perspective.In this study,the Ecosystem Service Value(ESV)estimation model is adopted to research on the changes and spatial distribution characteristics of ecosystem services in Nanchang over time.Additionally,the Geoda software is used to analyze the correlation between spatial distribution characteristics and ecosystem service value in Nanchang.Subsequently,the Geo SOS-FLUS model is used to predict the land use in Nanchang in 2024 in different scenarios and analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the ecosystem services.In the end,the trade-off and synergy relationship between towns and villages in the future ecosystem services are explored.The research results are as follows:(1)The temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of LUCC in Nanchang from 2000 to 2018 are relatively evident.Except for construction land and unused land,the areas of other types of land used in the 18 years have shown downward trends on different scales.There are significant regional differences in the transformation of land-use types,among which the rate of change of construction land is significantly faster than that of other land-use types.Cultivated land,forests and waters are the primary sources of its increase.The degree of land use of most towns and villages in Nanchang presents an upward trend,particularly in the city center.(2)From 2000 to 2018,the total amount of ESV in Nanchang dropped from38.925 billion yuan to 36.466 billion yuan,amounting to a loss of 2.461 billion yuan in this period.Regarding the ESV contribution of different land-use types,the water area has the largest contribution value and the most extensive variation.For the ESV contribution of various ecological service functions,hydrological regulation and waste treatment contribute the most ESV,with drastic fluctuations,whereas raw material production and food production contribute the least ESV value,with minor fluctuations.The spatial distribution characteristics of ESV approximately present a pattern of "low in the middle and high around the sides".The spatial distribution of the high-value areas of each ecosystem service value varies,while the low-value areas are mainly concentrated in the central urban area with a tendency of further expansion over time.During the 18 years,the Moran’s I value per unit area of Ecosystem Service Value(UESV)in Nanchang was positive with an upward trend.The main aggregate types of villages and towns were “low-low” and “high-high”.In addition,the number of townships(streets)with "high-high" and "low-low" agglomeration patterns was rising with an increasingly evident pattern of spatial agglomeration over the 18 years.(3)The Geo SOS-FLUS model is used to predict the land use situation and ESV in Nanchang.The Kappa index reaches 0.8422 in the pre-simulation,with an accuracy that meets the requirements of this research.According to the model prediction,the land use pattern varies significantly under different economic development modes.The ESV under different development modes in Nanchang is ranked as follows:sustainable development mode> natural development mode> economic development mode.The ecological service function that contributes the most to the ESV under the three development modes is the regulation services.The spatial distribution of the value of various ecosystem services is roughly in the pattern of "low in the middle,high in the surroundings",and their numerical levels show significant spatial differences.Based on the results of correlation analysis and bivariate Moran’s I analysis,the value of various ecosystem services in Nanchang displays a synergistic relationship under the three development modes,among which the synergy relationship between supply services and support services is comparatively prominent.In terms of spatial pattern,the spatial distribution of the trade-off and synergy between the various services in the ecosystem is relatively regular,while the synergy characteristics of spatial service aggregation are more prominent.