Evaluation Of Ecosystem Service Value Based On Simulation Of Land Use Change

Ecological and environmental issues have become a key concern in China,and resource and environmental constraints have become an important proposition for the development of the times.Land use change has always been regarded as a key factor in environmental changes,which directly has a profound impact on the ecosystem and then changes the ecosystem structure and service functions.Therefore,exploring the evolutionary laws of land use changes,simulating future land use patterns,and studying the value of ecosystem services in areas based on land use changes are of great significance to the current land space ecological protection planning and policy formulation.The thesis uses the second national land survey geographic database and the third national land survey geographic database as basic data,and the research object is Lancang County.First,the characteristics of land use change in Lancang County from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed by using GIS spatial analysis technology.And Binary Logistic Regression Model was used to verify that the driving factors selected in this thesis could better explain the characteristics of land use change.Then,Under the three scenarios of natural development,ecological protection and economic development,the Markov-Flus coupling model was used to simulate the land use change in Lancang County in 2030,and the simulation results were analyzed.Then,based on the land use data from 2010 to 2020,the temporal and spatial evolution of the ecosystem service value in Lancang County was analyzed.Finally,based on the results of the land use scenario simulation,the distribution characteristics of the ecological and service value of Lancang County in 2030 were analyzed.And the ecological function zoning of Lancang County was delineated on this basis.Then,corresponding planning control measures were proposed.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Characteristics of land use change in Lancang County: In recent 10 years,the composition structure of land use with the largest proportion of woodland and cultivated land remains unchanged,woodland and construction land are increasing,while other types of land are decreasing.The land use of Lancang County is in the period of development,with great development potential,and the land use change is in a stable state.(2)Scenario simulation: In the three scenarios,construction land and woodland are increasing,while the other types of land are decreasing.However,the conversion rate and quantity of land use vary greatly in different scenarios,and the four types of land with the largest difference are construction land,cultivated land,garden land and woodland.We need to pay attention to the phenomenon that arable land is decreasing year by year.(3)The characteristics of ecosystem service value changes in Lancang County: In the past10 years,the total value of ecosystem services in Lancang County has increased.Among them,the ecosystem service value of forest land is increasing greatly,with an overall increase of about16.7 billion yuan,while the ecosystem service value of all other land types is decreasing.The distribution characteristics of ecosystem service value in Lancang County are higher in the south than in the north,and higher in the east than in the west.(4)The distribution characteristics of the ecosystem service value of Lancang County in2030 under different scenarios: The total ecosystem service value in the natural development scenario is 194,881.11 million yuan,the total ecosystem service value in the ecological protection scenario is 200745.38 million yuan,and the total ecosystem service value in the economic development scenario is 194,447.45 million yuan.Under the three scenarios,the spatial distribution of ecosystem service values in Lancang County in 2030 showed a significant agglomeration characteristic,with the highest agglomeration under the economic development scenario and the lowest under the ecological protection scenario,and the spatial distribution characteristics remained unchanged.(5)Zoning of ecological functions: Four first-level ecological function zones and 10second-level ecological management units have been designated in Lancang County.The core ecological protection zone has 110 units,covering an area of 2,903 square km.The general ecological protection zone has 103 units,covering an area of 3,298 square km.The modern agricultural development zone consists of 37 units,covering an area of 1,982 km.There are 23 units in the public green conservation zone,covering an area of 545 square km.