| Land resources are one of the indispensable basic resources in human development and urban construction,and the inappropriate utilization of land resources will directly affect the sustainable development of regional social economy and ecological environment.Since the new century,with the rapid development of economy,the development and utilization of land resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has increased significantly,which caused considerable damage to the local ecological environment,and to explore the impact of land use changes on ecosystem service value has important practical significance for identifying the ecological environment of the Greater Bay Area and optimizing the spatial pattern of the country.Therefore,this thesis takes the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the research area and interprets the remote sensing images obtained from 1970s to 2020 in the Greater Bay Area with the support of Google Earth Engine cloud platform by using the support vector machine method.The land use information of the Greater Bay Area from 1980 to 2020 with an average classification accuracy of 84%was obtained.Then,land use transfer matrix and Sankey diagram were used to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern evolution characteristics of land use in the Greater Bay Area.The ecosystem service value of each year was calculated by using equivalent factor method and the impact of land use on ecosystem service value was analyzed.Finally,the constructed FLUS model was used to simulate the land use change in the Greater Bay Area in 2030 with multiple scenarios,and the impact of land use dynamic change on ecosystem service value under different scenarios was analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）From 1980 to 2020,the land use types in the Greater Bay Area are mainly forest land（54%-56%）,cultivated land（22%-30%）and construction land（5%-15%）.Construction land changed the most,with a total increase of 5317km~2,followed by cultivated land,which decreased by 3961km~2,forest land decreased by 963km~2,and other land use types changed relatively little.From the perspective of spatial change,the patches of each land use type tend to be fragmented,and the patch shape becomes increasingly complex.The most obvious change is the construction land,which shows an overall trend of expansion from the center to the surrounding areas,and the patch connectivity is gradually strengthened,this is due to the high-intensity economic development activities of the Greater Bay Area have led to the development of a large number of arable land,forest land and water area into construction land.（2）During the 40-year period,the total ESV of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area increased first and then decreased.From the perspective of individual ecosystems,except for water resources supply service,the ESV of the other ecosystems all changed negatively,and the negative change of food production service was the most obvious,which was-0.17%.Regulation services are the most important ecosystem services in the Greater Bay Area.From the perspective of the ESV of various land use type,the decrease of natural landscape area is the main reason for reducing the number of ESV,and the reduction of grassland area has the largest ESV loss,followed by the cultivated land and forest land.It shows that the protection of natural landscapes（grassland,woodland,water）in the future is an important way to alleviate the loss of ESV,so as to better realize the ecological protection of the Greater Bay Area.（3）The multi-scenario simulation of land use change in the Greater Bay Area in 2030shows that under the natural development scenario and the urban development scenario,the construction land changes the most,and cultivated land,forest land,grassland and water areas have all been converted to construction land to varying degrees.In the cultivated land protection scenario,cultivated land changes the most,while in the ecological protection scenario,the area of natural landscapes has been effectively increased,and the expansion trend of construction land has also slowed down.In terms of ESV,the total value loss of ESV from urban development and cultivated land protection is relatively high,the increase of building area and the large-scale reduction of forest and grassland area become the key to the reduction of ESV in the two scenarios.In the ecological protection scenario,although the trend of total ESV reduction has not been effectively curbed,the reduction is significantly less than the other scenarios.This scenario will become the optimal scenario for future land use optimization in the Greater Bay Area. |
