Study On Spatial And Temporal Dynamic Distribution And Control Measures Of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution In Shandong Province

Agricultural pollution has become one of the urgent environmental problems to be solved in Shandong Province.In accordance with the spirit of the 2021 Central Rural Work Conference,we will adhere to the "three rural" issues as the center of our work,with the goal of high-quality and efficient development,and achieve the goal of livable and suitable rural areas,and farmers’ pursuit of prosperity and prosperity towards a moderately prosperous society.Currently,Shandong Province is moving towards a high-quality agricultural development model,but the ecological and environmental issues in agriculture and rural areas are still prominent,and the development mode of agricultural production has not fundamentally changed.This study takes agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province as the research object,and uses statistical data,literature materials,and indoor experimental data to calculate agricultural non-point source pollution emissions.On this basis,kernel density estimation,Markov chain analysis and other methods are used to study the dynamic evolution process and spatial-temporal evolution law of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province,and a spatial econometric model is constructed to empirically analyze the influencing factors of agricultural non-point source pollution,and some countermeasures and suggestions are given according to the empirical results.On this basis,the main conclusions of this article are as follows.(1)By analyzing the monitoring data of agricultural non-point source pollution in 17 cities(counties,districts)in Shandong Province,it was found that there were significant differences in the total amount of agricultural non-point source pollution emissions from 2001 to 2019 in Shandong Province.(2)In terms of the dynamic evolution of the distribution of agricultural non-point source pollution in 17 cities(counties,districts)in Shandong Province,the overall development level shows a clear polarization trend,and the absolute difference level is on an upward trajectory.The key point for future work is to curb the further improvement of the absolute difference level.From the perspective of the dynamic transfer law of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province,the probability of agricultural non-point source pollution level in 17 cities(counties,districts)under its jurisdiction remains within its own range,with a relatively obvious path dependence phenomenon.(3)The spatial distribution of agricultural non-point source pollution has a significant positive correlation and strong spatial clustering;Spatial clustering is characterized by a pattern of clustering distribution in space,with a decreasing trend in spatial clustering.By decomposing the SDM time and space dual fixed effects model,it was found that agricultural economic growth,residents’ consumption capacity,and urbanization level have a significant impact on agricultural economic growth.Therefore,local governments should fully consider the important factors that affect agricultural economic growth,residents’ consumption capacity,and urbanization level,actively utilize their own advantages,interact with surrounding areas,play a spatial interactive role,carry out agricultural new technology training,and build an effective agricultural non-point source pollution prevention and control system.