Study On Spatial-temporal Pattern And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions At County Level

Agricultural carbon emissions are one of the major sources of carbon emissions,in the era of peak carbon and carbon neutrality.It is of great significance to clarify the status quo of agricultural carbon emissions and analyze spatial-temporal changes and influencing factors.As we know,Jiangxi Province is one of China’s 13 major grainproducing provinces,with a long history of agriculture and an important strategic position in its economy.Herein,based on the four major carbon sources in Jiangxi Province,including paddy field planting,agricultural investment inputs,soil plowing and livestock and poultry farming,the agricultural carbon emissions measurement system of Jiangxi Province was established to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions in 81 counties of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2020.Based on the data of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province,the article uses spatial autocorrelation analysis,gravity model,and LMDI decomposition method to explore the spatial pattern of agricultural carbon emissions and their driving mechanisms in each county.The research shows that:(1)The areas with higher carbon emissions from paddy field planting are mainly located in the Poyang Plain.The carbon emissions from livestock and poultry breeding are mainly from cattle breeding,while poultry breeding has lower requirements and is less affected by geographical environment;and there is a certain correlation between the spatial agricultural investment inputs and paddy field planting.The development of intensive agriculture should be combined with regional industrial characteristics.(2)The overall trend of agricultural carbon emissions is increasing,while the trend of agricultural carbon emissions intensity is decreasing.Considering the slowdown in the growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions and the decrease in agricultural carbon emissions intensity,it indicates that the efficiency of agricultural production in Jiangxi Province is gradually improving.As the carbon emissions intensity of planting is higher than that of livestock,it is necessary to appropriately increase the scale and intensive development of livestock and poultry breeding industry while ensuring food supply.(3)From 2000 to 2020,the high carbon emissions areas were mainly concentrated around Poyang Lake and Jitai Basin.Compared with the distribution of carbon emissions,the distribution of agricultural carbon emissions intensity in Jiangxi Province is relatively dispersed.The center of gravity of the total carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province has shifted northward,indicating that the flat terrain and wide area of Poyang Lake are more suitable for the development of rice cultivation.The South Jiangxi Province,the development of navel orange industry,should be promoted based on the characteristics of the terrain,to create a distinctive regional brand under the premise of sustainable agricultural development.(4)From 2000 to 2020,the agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province increased by 2.19 million tons.Each factor on agricultural carbon emissions reduction and its proportion in the total agricultural carbon emissions reduction dis-played the following tendency: agricultural production efficiency > urbanization level > agricultural structure adjustment.Except for the urbanization level factor,the order of the absolute reduction of carbon emissions by each factor is: The North Jiangxi Province > The Middle Jiangxi Province > The South Jiangxi Province.Therefore,indicating that the decoupling of agricultural carbon emissions and the economy in Jiangxi Province is gradually taking place.The present work could light on a scientific strategy for the estimation of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province and even other major grain producing areas in China.