As one of the traditional fossil energy sources,coal accounted for as much as 56.2% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2022,playing a crucial role in ensuring energy security and sustaining economic development.However,in recent years,with the introduction of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,the overall demand for coal is expected to decline in the long run.This has led coal enterprises to consider optimizing their production capacity to ensure their economic benefits and sustainable development.This thesis focuses on optimizing the overall production capacity of a company and the annual production capacity allocation of various types of coal products from the perspective of maximizing economic benefits,considering constraints such as policy planning,market demand,and technological feasibility.Firstly,a detailed analysis of the current status and production-sales structure of Y company’s coal products is conducted from the perspective of the enterprise itself to illustrate the rationality of production capacity optimization.Based on the dual-carbon target and considering energy security,the coal market is analyzed and cautiously predicted from four aspects: market demand,market supply,policy development planning,and coal market prices to demonstrate the necessity of production capacity optimization for coal enterprises from the market perspective.Then,based on the actual production and sales situation of Y company’s mining area,the production capacity optimization is achieved through mine expansion and renovation projects,and the feasibility of the project implementation is verified from both technological and economic perspectives.From a technological perspective,external and internal construction conditions of the mining area are analyzed,and SWOT analysis is conducted based on project requirements.From an economic perspective,production capacity investment estimation is performed based on the current accounting methods,financial analysis is conducted,the internal rate of return of the project is obtained,the benchmark rate of return is compared,and the economic feasibility of the project is determined.Finally,the production capacity allocation is further optimized by establishing an optimization model based on the structure of coal product types,improving the unit production capacity profit,conducting sensitivity analysis,and comparing the impact of various factors to provide decision support for arranging future coal production planning for decision-makers.This thesis predicts market changes based on the dual-carbon strategy background,combines the characteristics of the company and mining design specifications to determine the overall production capacity optimization plan for Company Y,and further optimizes the distribution of production capacity through the optimization of the commodity coal variety structure.This can effectively improve the utilization rate of production capacity,increase the economic benefits of the enterprise,and provide reference for adjusting the capacity planning of the coal industry under the background of the dual-carbon goal.This thesis has 10 figures,25 tables and 82 references. |