Analysis And Simulation Of Influencing Factors Of Urban Land Use Carbon Dioxide Emissions

In the past century,the global extensive development has led to the rapid rise of CO₂ emissions,resulting in serious climate problems,which have become the focus of human attention.After reform and opening-up,China has made remarkable achievements in development.In 2022,its GDP reached 121 trillion yuan,and its urbanization rate was 65.2 percent.However,China’s CO₂ emissions accounted for about 30 percent of the world’s total,ranking the first place,putting great pressure on the implementation of China’s carbon strategy and high-quality development.As cities are gathering places with high economic growth,high energy consumption and high CO₂ emissions（referred to as"three high and one gathering"）,the rapid agglomeration of urban industrial population and rapid economic growth bring great challenges to the land use system and carbon emission balance.Therefore,based on a systematic perspective,studying the evolution mechanism and development trend of urban land use CO₂ emission system is of great significance for our country to achieve goal of carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality,and promote high-quality economic development.In view of this,in accordance with the research idea of"factor analysis-model construction-scenario simulation",the STIRPAT model was first extended to analyze the influencing factors of urban carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province.Then,the dynamic model of urban land use CO₂ emissions system in Jiangsu Province was constructed,and the development trend of urban land,economy and CO₂ emissions under the goal of"carbon peak"was simulated in multiple scenarios.Finally,based on the simulation results,the optimal carbon peak path suitable for the development of Jiangsu Province was selected.Through the above studies,the following conclusions are come to:（1）The analysis of the evolution trend and influencing factors of land use CO₂emissions showed that urban land use,economic aggregate and CO₂ emissions in Jiangsu Province continued to grow and showed a linear change trend among them;The effects of urbanization,economic development and technological progress on CO₂ emissions are different in various stages of development.From the perspective of different subsites,the driving effect of urban land use is gradually enhanced,while the driving and mitigating effects of other indicators are gradually weakened.（2）The research on the dynamics model of urban land use CO₂ emissions system shows that the system dynamics model constructed by the framework of urban land use CO₂ emissions system has good stability and robustness after passing three tests:intuitive operation test,historical test and sensitivity analysis.And it could effectively simulate the land-economy-carbon emission system and the simulation prediction for the system.（3）The multi-scenarios simulation of urban land use CO₂ emissions under the carbon peaking target shows that among the four scenarios of inertia development,carbon reduction development,quality improvement development and accelerating development,only the carbon reduction development and quality improvement development scenario achieved"carbon peaking"during the simulation period,with the peak time and peak time of 2025 and 657.9 million tons,respectively.By 2030,698.85 million tons.（4）Path selection for achieving carbon peak by 2030 in Jiangsu Province According to the analysis,under the quality improvement development scenario,Jiangsu Province maintains the development speed under the inertia scenario and realizes"carbon peak"by improving land use,energy efficiency and energy structure,which not only ensures the steady growth of economic aggregate,but also satisfies the development status of Jiangsu Province.At the same time,it also meets the overall requirements of achieving carbon peak by 2030.It is suggested that:Firstly,Jiangsu Province should pay attention to improving the quality of economic development.Secondly,fundamentally improve urban land use,energy efficiency,promote scientific and technological innovation,optimize energy supply,and realize the decoupling of energy supply and CO₂ emissions.Finally,in the formulation of development policies,it is necessary to adapt to local conditions and circumstances and provide differentiated development policies for different regions.The thesis consists of 17 figures,14 tables and 152 references.