Calculation And Scenario Simulation Of Urban Land Use Carbon Emissions

Global climate change caused by the cumulative emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is a common challenge facing mankind at present,September 22,2020,President Xi Jinping has set the goal of achieving "carbon peak" by 2030 and "carbon neutrality" by 2060 at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly How to realize both urban low carbon development and economic growth is an important challenge for urban development.Land is the carrier of human production and living activities,and the carbon emission of human production and living activities is closely related to land use.Based on the perspective of land use,the research on urban carbon emission effect and the simulation and prediction of urban carbon emission are conducive to the realization of the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goal.This study constructed the analysis framework of urban land use carbon emissions effect and the framework of land use carbon emissions simulation and prediction model.Taking Shanghai as an example,this paper studies the macro-scale carbon emissions of land use in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020,and analyzes the carbon emissions per unit of GDP and unit of construction land in each administrative region by using carbon emission allocation rules.Finally,land use carbon emissions in 2030 under different simulated scenarios were calculated by using the CA-Markov model and based on relevant planning.In the study on the total carbon emissions of the whole city,it is observed that the total carbon emissions of Shanghai peaked in 2015 and began to decline in 2020.Among all types of land use,the carbon emissions of construction land bearing the secondary industry and the tertiary industry accounted for the vast majority of the total carbon emissions,and after 2015,the carbon emissions of the tertiary industry had exceeded that of the secondary industry.At the same time,the carbon absorption of Shanghai is far from the balance of carbon emissions,and its carbon budget is in an extremely unbalanced state.In the study of administrative regions,it is found that the closer the administrative region is to the urban center,the lower the carbon emission per unit GDP,and the higher the energy utilization efficiency of the administrative region is compared with other regions.The reduction rate of carbon emission in the administrative regions with contiguously developed construction land was higher than that in the administrative regions with discrete development outside the city.In addition,also to Pudong New Area,Chongming District and other special administrative regions do in-depth analysis.This paper creates three different urban development scenarios,namely ecological protection,natural development and planned development,to simulate the carbon emission of different types of land in the city.The carbon emission reduction value in the ecological protection scenario is the largest,followed by the planning development scenario,and the carbon emission reduction value in the natural development scenario is the smallest.However,the carbon sinks under the three scenarios are always difficult to balance the carbon emissions of construction land in Shanghai.Based on the results of the scenario simulation and the calculation of the carbon emissions of the whole city and each administrative region,this study puts forward the future carbon reduction strategy of Shanghai and the specific strategy of each administrative region.