| With rapid socio-economic development,greenhouse gas emissions,represented by carbon dioxide,have risen sharply,exacerbating the greenhouse effect and impacting the global climate.In 2020,President Xi Jinping told the 75 th session of the United Nations General Assembly that China is committed to achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060.As agriculture is an important source of greenhouse gases,promoting the use of agricultural land to reduce carbon emissions is an important measure to achieve the "double carbon" goal.As a large agricultural city,Jiujiang City has been developing its agriculture with problems such as rough use of agricultural land and high carbon emissions,which hinder the healthy and sustainable development of agriculture.Based on this,this study takes Jiujiang City as the research object,combines its main agricultural land use activities,takes agricultural material inputs,paddy cultivation,agricultural soil use,livestock and poultry enteric fermentation and livestock and poultry manure management as carbon emission sources to measure carbon emissions from2006-2020,analyzes the spatial and temporal change characteristics,and portrays its dynamic evolution trend with the help of kernel density estimation method;then uses Kaya constant equation and Then,the Kaya constant equation and LMDI decomposition model were used to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions from agricultural land use;the STIRPAT model was used to forecast the trend of carbon emissions from agricultural land use in 2021-2035 in multiple scenarios;finally,countermeasures and suggestions for carbon control and emission reduction were proposed based on the research results.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2006 to 2020,carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang City showed a trend of fluctuating upward and then continuously decreasing,fluctuating upward from 2006 to 2018 and continuously decreasing in 2019 and 2020,overall,from1,094,300 t in 2006 to 1,194,900 t in 2020,a total increase of 10.06 million t,an increase of 9.19%.During the study period,the carbon emission intensity of agricultural land use in Jiujiang City decreased year by year,except for an increase in 2018,from 1558.67kg/million in 2006 to 498.62 kg/million in 2020,with a decrease of 68.01%.In terms of carbon emission sources,the average carbon emission size of each type of carbon source from 2006 to 2020 is paddy cultivation(758,600 t)> agricultural material input(212,600t)> agricultural soil utilization(110,600 t)> livestock manure management(85,700 t)>livestock enteric fermentation(43,300 t),and the proportion of carbon emission from each type of carbon source to the total is 62.65%,17.56%,9.13%,7.08% and 3.58% of the total carbon emissions,the change trend is "one up,four down",the carbon emissions from paddy cultivation increased,and the carbon emissions from the remaining four categories decreased.(2)Affected by regional natural resource endowment and socio-economic development level,carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang City show different spatial characteristics: total carbon emissions are "high in the south and low in the north",with the top three in 2020 being Xiushui County,Yongxiu County and Duchang County,and the bottom three being downtown,Gongqing City and Lushan City;the top three in carbon emission intensity are Yongxiu County,Xiushui County and Wuning County;the top three in carbon emission from agricultural material inputs are Yongxiu County,Duchang County and Xiushui County;the top three in carbon emission from paddy field planting are Xiushui County,Wuning County and Duchang County;the top three in carbon emission from farmland soil use are Yongxiu County,Pengze County and Xiushui County;the top three in carbon emission from livestock and poultry intestinal fermentation are The top three rankings of carbon emissions from livestock and poultry intestinal fermentation were Xiushui County,Wuning County and Pengze County,respectively;the top three rankings of livestock and poultry manure management were Xiushui County,Pengze County and Ruichang City,respectively.From the dynamic evolution trend,the total carbon emission of agricultural land use has a polarization effect but weakened during the study period;the carbon emission of agricultural material input aggregates at low values and the polarization effect is also weakening;the carbon emission of paddy cultivation always has a polarization effect;the carbon emission of agricultural soil use does not have a polarization effect;the carbon emission of livestock enteric fermentation and livestock manure management are similar,and both change from a single-peak pattern to a double-peak pattern with The polarization effect is enhanced.(3)The results of the analysis of influencing factors show that compared with 2006,the cumulative carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang City increased by1,746,500 t from 2007 to 2020.The level of economic development,the level of urbanization and the scale of labor force promoted carbon emissions,and the three led to a total increase of 18,210,100 t;the efficiency of agricultural production,the regional industrial structure and the structure of agricultural industry suppressed carbon emissions.The three have achieved a total of 16,463,800 t of carbon emission reduction.From the perspective of counties(cities and districts),compared with 2006,the cumulative amount of carbon emissions from agricultural land use in urban areas has decreased,while the rest of the regions have increased.The effects of various factors on carbon emissions from agricultural land use in different regions differ: agricultural production efficiency and regional industrial structure show inhibiting effects on all counties(cities and districts);agricultural industrial structure shows promoting effects on De’an County and Pengze County and inhibiting effects on other regions;economic development level and urbanization level show promoting effects on all counties(cities and districts);labor force size shows promoting effects on urban area,The labor force scale has a promoting effect on urban area,Wuning County,Xiushui County,De’an County,Duchang County,Hukou County and Gongqingcheng City,and an inhibiting effect on other areas.(4)The results of the STIRPAT model showed that the goodness of fit of the model was 0.79,and the respective variables also passed the significance test,indicating a good fit and high confidence in the results.To further verify the accuracy of the model,the fitted values were obtained by substituting the impact factor data from 2006-2020,and comparing them with the measured values,it was found that the change trend of both was basically the same,and the error rate of all years was less than 5%,which also indicated that the model was reasonably constructed.By setting the growth rates of each influencing factor in the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario and high-carbon scenario from 2021 to2035 for multi-scenario prediction,the results show that under the low-carbon scenario,the carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang City show a decreasing trend from2021 to 2035,and the carbon emissions in 2035 are 1.1053 million t,which is 7.5% lower than that in 2020,and the carbon peak is achieved in 2018.Under the baseline scenario,carbon emissions show an upward trend from 2021-2035,with 1,284,400 t in 2035,an increase of 7.49% compared to 2020,and not achieving peak carbon by 2030;under the high carbon scenario,carbon emissions also continue to rise from 2021-2035,with1,465,600 t in 2035,an increase of 22.65% compared to compared with 2020,an increase of 22.65%,and also does not achieve carbon peak by 2030.Therefore,Jiujiang City should further strengthen the carbon control and emission reduction of agricultural land use. |
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