Analysis Of Energy Carbon Emission Intensity And Research On Emission Reduction Measures In Fujian Province

The excessive emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities have led to increasing global warming.In response to the global warming crisis,China actively assumes the responsibility of the international community and proposes to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.As a national ecological civilization demonstration zone,Fujian Province has set a goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 18% by 2025 compared to 2020.Based on this background,this article explores the influencing factors and future development trends of carbon emission intensity in Fujian Province.Firstly,based on the energy consumption data in the Statistical Yearbook of Fujian Province,the IPCC emission factor method was used to calculate the carbon emissions in Fujian Province from 2001 to 2020 and analyzed based on its development.At the same time,the Tapio decoupling theory was used to analyze the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions in Fujian Province.Secondly,based on the Granger causality test,an expandable randomness environmental impact assessment STIRPAT method is used to construct a regression model for the influencing factors of carbon emission intensity in Fujian Province.At the same time,the LMDI model is used to decompose and analyze the influencing factors.Finally,the Markov transfer matrix is used to predict the energy structure ratio for the next four years.Based on the special plan for ecological construction in Fujian Province during the 14 th Five Year Plan period,three different development scenarios were set up to simulate and calculate the carbon emission intensity values in Fujian Province in 2025,and corresponding emission reduction strategies were proposed.Research concluded the following conclusions:(1)The total carbon emission of Fujian Province is still in an upward trend,but the growth rate in the second decade is significantly lower than that in the previous ten years,with the growth rate of carbon emission from the peak of 27%to negative 9%.(2)The decoupling status of economic growth and carbon emission in Fujian Province can be roughly divided into three stages.The first stage is from 2001 to 2005,from weak decoupling to expansion negative decoupling,which indicates that economic growth is seriously dependent on energy consumption.The second stage is from 2006 to 2011,with a weak decoupling and expansion connection cycle,and the main decoupling feature of this stage is that the economic growth rate is higher than the carbon emission rate.The third stage is after 2012,mainly showing weak decoupling and strong decoupling,continuing the good trend of the previous stage and appearing in the three years of 2012,2015 and 2016 with strong decoupling status.It shows that the growth engine of Fujian economy is getting rid of the dependence on resource consumption and presenting a good trend of low carbon economy.(3)The model analysis shows that energy intensity(model coefficient 0.696),energy structure(model coefficient 0.685)and industrial structure(model coefficient 0.680)are the three key factors affecting carbon emission intensity.Through the decomposition of carbon emission factors of LMDI model,it is found that the negative contribution rate of energy consumption intensity is the largest among the factors affecting the change of carbon emission in Fujian Province.Based on the simulation results of the Markov transition matrix in the three development models set by the scenario analysis method,the carbon emission intensity values of the general scenario,energy-saving mode and energyconsuming mode will be 0.1373,0.1362 and 0.1384 respectively in 2025,which are 17.34%,18.00%and 16.68% lower than that in 2020.Therefore,it is concluded that Fujian Province can achieve the carbon emission intensity target in 2025 under the energy-saving mode,while the general mode and energy-consuming mode cannot achieve the target.Finally,based on the simulation results,propose countermeasures from three levels: government,enterprise,and individual.