Research Of Carbon Intensity And The Carbon Emission Prediction Of Peak Value In Shanxi Province

Since the 20 th century,the problem of greenhouse climate has aroused the universal concern of the international community.As a major carbon dioxide emission province,Shanxi faces huge challenges in reducing emissions.This paper studies carbon emission in Shanxi Province from two dimensions: carbon emission and carbon intensity.Firstly,the factor decomposition and Attribution analysis of carbon emission intensity in Shanxi Province were analyzed based on lmdi-attribution method.Secondly,the STRIPAT model was constructed based on the decomposition results of LMDI factors,and the carbon emission in Shanxi Province was fitted with various factors.The future carbon emission and peak arrival time of Shanxi Province are obtained.Here are the main findings:(1)Carbon emissions in Shanxi Province are on the rise.Between 2000 and 2015,the carbon emission increased from 19773.50 to 50827.73 million tons,and the carbon emission increased by 31054.23 million tons.That’s 2.5 times more than before.However,the carbon emission intensity of Shanxi Province has decreased,from 10.71 tons per million in 2000 to 3.97 tons in 2015.(2)Based on the LMDI-Attribution model,the carbon intensity of Shanxi Province was analyzed from 2005 to 2015.In the industrial sector,the industrial structure is the most important factor contributing to the reduction of carbon emission intensity,and the contribution rate is 31.8%.Second,energy intensity factor,contribution rate is 23.5%.The energy structure factor is weak,the contribution rate is only 8%.In the residents’ life,the energy intensity of residents’ living energy has a restraining effect on the reduction of carbon emission,and the contribution rate is 29.5%.The economic scale factor contributed to the reduction of carbon intensity and contributed 63.6%.Among them,industry is the most important reason for the change of carbon emission intensity in Shanxi Province,and it is the focus of future emission reduction.(3)According to the STIRPAT model scenario analysis.Predict the future carbon emission peak in Shanxi Province between 6-10 billion tons.In all scenarios,Shanxi Province has a 75% probability of achieving the 2030 and previous peaks.In addition,the energy intensity and the growth rate of industrial structure have the greatest impact on the time of carbon emission and peak arrival.In terms of population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,and social fixed asset investment.If energy intensity and industrial structure are to be developed rapidly,carbon emissions will be minimized and the peak will be reached at an early date.But without proper regulation,Shanxi’s carbon emissions will not peak in 2030.