Study On Changes In Agricultural Carbon Emissions,driving Factors And Economic Decoupling Of Jiangxi Province

Social progress cannot be achieved without sustained economic development,and economic prosperity not only brings people a rich material civilization,but also inevitably produces greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.China’s agricultural carbon emissions account for one-fifth of the country’s total carbon emissions,which is higher than the world average.Against this background,and in the face of China’s binding targets for carbon emission reduction in agriculture,how to promote green and sustainable development of agriculture while ensuring quality and efficiency in Chinese agriculture has become an important issue in the current agricultural development.As an important grain-producing region in China,agriculture is an important industrial support in Jiangxi Province.However,due to the geographical environment and the level of economic development,agricultural production mainly grows in a sloppy manner,and agricultural production and income increase are highly dependent on agricultural material inputs,which makes Jiangxi Province’s agricultural carbon emission reduction work special.Agriculture is both a complex ecosystem and the basis of national economic development.The embodiment of high-quality development in the agricultural sector is to promote the green and comprehensive transformation and development of agriculture.This paper takes the agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2020 as the research object,and uses the carbon emission factor measurement formula to measure the total agricultural carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity in Jiangxi Province,and uses the GM(1,1)model to forecast and analyze the trend of carbon emissions in the next five years,uses the LMDI model to understand the driving factors affecting the agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province,and further analyses the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth through the Tapio decoupling model.Based on the above research,we use the decoupling effort model to further decompose and study the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi,to investigate the deep-seated reasons for the changes in decoupling elasticity,to make a more objective assessment of the province’s carbon emissions,and then to propose countermeasures to promote the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province.The main findings of this paper are as follows.First,the analysis of total agricultural carbon emissions:(1)between 2001 and 2020,Jiangxi’s agricultural carbon emissions showed an overall growth trend,with carbon emissions increasing from 66.7379 million tons in 2001 to 75.1095 million tons in 2020,and its change trend can be divided into "continuous climbing-steady decline "(2)With the adjustment and upgrading of the agricultural industry structure in Jiangxi Province,the province’s agricultural emission intensity showed a continuous decrease between 2001 and2020,from a peak of 11.42 tons of carbon emissions per 10,000 yuan in 2001 to a new historical low of 2.67 tons of carbon emissions per 10,000 yuan in 2020.(3)Through the GM(1,1)model analysis,Jiangxi Province’s agricultural carbon emissions still show a gradual decreasing trend from 2021 to 2025,and it is expected that Jiangxi Province’s agricultural carbon emissions will be reduced to 68,789,900 tons in 2025,with a cumulative decrease of 13.11% compared to the emissions in 2016.At the same time,it is also found that the efficiency of carbon emission reduction needs to be improved.Secondly,analysis of the factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions: among the factors driving agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province,the agricultural production efficiency factor,the agricultural labor force factor and the agricultural production structure factor inhibit the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province,achieving a cumulative carbon emission reduction of 113,798,200 tons,36,194,900 tons and 283,500 tons respectively,and it can be found that the agricultural production efficiency factor is the most important factor inhibiting the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province.It can be found that the efficiency factor of agricultural production is the most important factor that inhibits the growth of carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province.The factor of the level of agricultural economic development is the main factor leading to the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province,with a cumulative carbon increase of 15,864.82 million tons achieved during the period under examination.Third,Tapio decoupling model and decoupling effort model analysis:(1)The decoupling state of agriculture in Jiangxi Province shifted between strong decoupling and weak decoupling from 2001 to 2009,weak decoupling dominated the decoupling state from 2010 to 2015,and strong decoupling dominated the decoupling state in 2016 and beyond.In other words,the growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province is low or negative while the growth rate of agricultural economy is high.(2)The decoupling effort index after excluding economic factors from 2001 to 2020 are all greater than 0,that is,the decoupling effort state of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province within which is examined all show strong decoupling effort or weak decoupling effort,and from the decoupling effort of driving factors,agricultural production efficiency,agricultural labor force factor and agricultural production structure all make decoupling effort.Therefore,we should continue to make greater and stronger green and low-carbon agricultural economy,continuously improve the decoupling situation of the agricultural industry and promote the sustainability of carbon emission reduction efforts.Based on a study of the total agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2020,the influencing factors and decoupling from the economy,we summaries and summaries the main problems of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province at present,and propose countermeasures such as(1)empowering science and technology to promote agricultural transformation and development;(2)promoting low-carbon rice cultivation;(3)transforming green agricultural production methods;and(4)coordinating the relationship between economic development and agricultural carbon emissions.Helping to reduce agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province and promoting high-quality agricultural development.