Study On Mechanisms Changes Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions In Jilin Province

With the global climate change,China has paid more and more attention to greenhouse gas emissions in recent years.However,according to the report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change（IPCC）,agricultural production has become the second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world.Agriculture as an important source of greenhouse gas emissions,and also a basic industry of the development of national economy in China.How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while considering rapid economic development is a focal issue that needs to be solved urgently.Therefore,reducing agricultural carbon emissions（ACE）is an inevitable requirement for modern agricultural development.Jilin Province,as a large agricultural province in north China,it is of great practical significance to realize the development of low-carbon agriculture and sustainable agriculture.This paper takes the ACE in Jilin Province as research object.Based on the ACE statistics of Jilin Province in China from 1998 to 2018,this article considers the sources of ACE in depth,and fourteen different carbon sources are selected to calculate ACE.Besides,the paper explores the variation characteristics of ACE in Jilin Province,their structure,and relationship between the intensity and density of the dynamic changes in ACE in the province in terms of time.Finally,the author uses the Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）to analyze the influential factors in ACE.In addition,this study uses quantitative method through time series analysis to explore whether there is a long-term stable relationship between each factor and ACE in Jilin Province.The results show that:（1）During 1998–2018,the amount of ACE in Jilin Province increased,while the chain growth rate has been negative in recent years,which reflects that carbon emission reduction has been achieved to a certain extent.（2）The characteristics of ACE in Jilin Province is the type of"low intensity high density".Furthermore,agricultural resource input is the main source of the planting industry’s carbon emissions.From the perspective of animal husbandry,the proportion of CH₄decreased,while the proportion of N₂O is relatively stable.（3）Based on the LMDI decomposition model,production efficiency,industrial structure,and labor are the three main factors that reduce ACE in Jilin Province.The economic level is the main driving factor of ACE,and it will be the most important factor leading to the increase of ACE in a short term.（4）Based on the econometric analysis of factors affecting ACE in Jilin Province,the results indicate that the factors of agricultural production efficiency,economic level,industrial structure and labor force have significant effects on the total amount of ACE,which means there is a one-way Granger causality.On the basis of comprehensive analysis,and based on the above results,the following countermeasures are put forward to reduce the ACE in Jilin Province:（1）Protect farmland soil resources and adjust the input mode of agricultural resources;（2）Optimize industrial structure and transform agricultural production methods;（3）Improve low-carbon agricultural policies and scientifically formulate ACE reduction plans;（4）Innovate low-carbon agricultural technologies and encourage the promotion of low-carbon agricultural technologies;（5）Increase low-carbon agricultural publicity and cultivate high-level talents.