A Scenario Simulation Study Of Chinese Carbon Neutrality Target Based On System Dynamics

The problem of global warming caused by excessive carbon dioxide emissions has attracted more and more attention from the international community.At the United Nations General Assembly on September 22,2020,the Chinese government announced that it will achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.This is the first time the Chinese government has put forward such a specific goal at an international con-ference.The concept of carbon neutrality is also spreading in China.On December 18,2020,at the Central Economic Work Conference,carbon neutrality was listed as one of China’s eight key tasks in 2021,which is enough to reflect the importance of carbon neu-trality.This paper mainly starts from the study of the factors affecting my country’s carbon emissions.Based on the STIRPAT model and ridge regression,the main influencing factors are selected from several selected carbon emission factors,and a dynamic model of China’s carbon neutrality system is constructed.Carbon Development has set up several scenarios,and based on the final scenario simulation results,it provides corresponding policy sug-gestions for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal.First,based on the relevant energy data of the National Bureau of Statistics,we calculated my country’s CO₂ emissions from2001 to 2019,and found that in the past 20 years,China’s overall carbon content has nearly doubled,from 3.8 billion tons in 2001 to 2019.10.9 billion tons.Based on this,this paper starts with my country’s population,economy,and energy consumption in combination with the STIRPAT model,and selects population,GDP,energy intensity,industrial struc-ture,total electricity consumption,energy structure,urbanization rate,total investment in science and technology,foreign investment The nine indicators of direct investment de-compose the influencing factors of carbon emissions in my country,calculate the contri-bution rate of each influencing factor,and determine the main influencing factors.The ridge regression results show that the total population,per capita GDP,industrial structure,power consumption,energy structure,urbanization rate,Factors such as scientific and tech-nological capital investment will promote the increase of carbon emissions,and energy intensity and foreign direct investment will inhibit carbon emissions.Secondly,based on the decomposition results of the STIRPAT model,a system dy-namics model of my country’s carbon neutrality was constructed using the system dynam-ics method,and indicators such as economy,population,energy structure,energy intensity,forest area,and industrial structure were used as the main influencing factors.By adjusting the combination of these indicators,9 scenarios are set for China’s low-carbon develop-ment from 2020 to 2060.The prediction and simulation results show that China’s carbon emissions will increase to varying degrees from 2020 to 2030,and then all scenarios will see a large increase in carbon emissions.The magnitude decreases.Finally,Scenario 3,Scenario 2,Scenario 1,and Scenario 5 will appear carbon neutral before 2060.Finally,according to the forecast results,a series of countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve economic quality,control economic growth rate,accelerate industrial upgrading,encourage technological innovation,vigorously develop clean energy,protect the environment and plant trees.