Research On Influence Factors Of Carbon Emission And Prediction Of Carbon Intensity In Guangdong Province

Since Industrial Revolution, economy grows rapidly. However, the increasingconsumption of energy has caused environmental problems at global scale. Debatesover this have continued for centuries. In the last five UN Climate Conferences,developed countries have required developing countries to take more responsibility ofcarbon emission reduction, and put pressure on developing countries to transfer theirduty and responsibility. They stated that China and other emerging economies have toaccept the emission targets, and delayed their financial assistance at the same time.China, after2006, has made low-carbon development plans, enacted some relatedpolicies, developed low-carbon industries, built low-carbon cities, and promotedlow-carbon life, based upon the fundamental situation and stage of China. Theseefforts aim at protecting the environment to encourage the harmonious development ofeconomy, society, environment, and putting the Sustainable Development Strategy intoPractice at the time of industrialization and urbanization. The development oflow-carbon is a supposed response to climate change, industrial reconstruction andeconomic transformation, for Guangdong Province, the frontier of Opening andReform Policy.This research starts with discussion on the urgency of low-carbon developmentfrom global, China, and Guangdong three sides. It then proceeds to the p roposition ofresearch questions, research aims and significance based upon this background, andthe design of technical roadmap. Through a deliberate comparison of severalapproaches to carbon several carbon factor analysis approaches and carbon predictio napproaches, it selects STIRPAT Model to analyze the influence factors of carbonemission, and chooses system dynamics to simulate and predict the carbon emissionintensity of Guangdong Province. After that, it calculates carbon emission ofGuangdong Province, and analyzes its characteristics from economic development,energy structure, industry structure, and population four aspects. Following this, aregression model is constructed with STIRPAT Model which shows that population,material wealth, technology, and industry structure level are the main factors affectingcarbon emission. Carbon intensity prediction based on system dynamic model showsthat the forecasted2020carbon intensity is lower than the carbon reduction target ofGuangdong. This implies that the carbon emission reduction objective of Guangdongcan be realized. Finally, some suggestions are proposed on account of a scenarioanalysis with changing natural growth rate, sector growth rate, industry structure, and carbon sink. The current research holds both theoretical and practical value with itsanalysis of factors underlying carbon emission and prediction of the carbon intensityof Guangdong Province.