Agricultural Carbon Emission And Its Influencing Factors In The Yangtze River Economic Belt Under The Background Of Carbon Neutrality

As an important major grain producing area in China,the Yangtze River Economic Belt occupies an important strategic position and plays an important role in the development of agricultural and rural modernization.In such a region with rich agricultural resources,good infrastructure and dense population,how to support the sustainable development of high-quality agriculture while achieving the goal of agricultural "double carbon " is one of the important issues that must be foreseen at this stage.Agriculture is the source of human food and clothing,the foundation of survival,the primary condition of all production,and also an important ecological industry that produces a large amount of carbon emissions and carbon sinks.Therefore,it is of great policy significance to study and predict agricultural carbon emissions from the perspective of "double carbon" for future agricultural development.In this study,various agricultural carbon sources were sorted out to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions of the provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2001 to 2020,and then the STIRPAT model was used to find the policy factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions.Combined with the scenario analysis method,the future policy scenarios were set up to predict the agricultural carbon emissions of the provinces in the economic belt,and the feasible path to achieve "double carbon" was found.Finally,the Super-SBM model was used to measure the efficiency of agricultural carbon emission paths under various policy scenarios in 2030 and 2060 to find the optimal path to achieve the "double carbon" goal.The main results are as follows:(1)From the perspective of the change of agricultural carbon emissions and the proportion of carbon sources,from 2001 to 2020,the overall carbon emissions of the economic belt increased by 46.8444 million tons,of which 2001-2005 was in a sharp upward trend,and the emissions rose from 415.0675 million tons to 46068.43.By 2007,after the state announced the implementation of the "National Pollution Census",the carbon emissions of the economic belt were controlled at 46000-480 million tons,and the degree of change decreased while the agricultural economy rose rapidly,and the carbon emission intensity was greatly reduced,and the agricultural carbon emissions began to decline year by year after reaching a maximum of 482.6122 million tons in 2015,and fell to 461.9119 million tons in 2020;from the perspective of agricultural emissions in each province,the proportion of carbon sources from large to small is rice planting,animal husbandry,Chemical materials,energy emissions.Trends in agricultural emissions by province.Agricultural emissions in seven provinces,Yunnan,Sichuan,Jiangxi,Jiangsu,Hunan,Hubei and Anhui,are on the rise,with Hunan Province having the largest increase in carbon emissions and Yunnan Province having the fastest growth rate.The four provinces of Jiangxi,Shanghai,Guizhou and Zhejiang are generally in a downward trend,with Zhejiang reducing agricultural carbon emissions the most and Shanghai the fastest.(2)In order to achieve agricultural carbon peaking,the factors that have a significant impact on agricultural carbon emissions were found by constructing the STIRPAT model,and three carbon peaking scenarios were set up for prediction through the national policies of these factors,and it was found that the agricultural carbon emissions of eight provinces in Guizhou,Hubei,Hunan,Jiangsu,Sichuan,Zhejiang,Chongqing and Anhui were in a downward trend year by year,indicating that they had achieved agricultural carbon peaking before the scenario prediction.All three scenarios can become the agricultural development policies of these provinces before 2030,and the difference between the scenarios is the reduction rate of carbon emissions,from fast to slow,agricultural high development scenario,benchmark scenario,and agricultural low development scenario.Shanghai,Jiangxi and Yunnan can only achieve agricultural carbon peaking under the scenario of low agricultural development,and the proportion of planting and animal husbandry is too large,resulting in an imbalance in the industrial structure,so they can only reduce agricultural carbon emissions by reducing the speed of agricultural development and optimizing the industrial structure.(3)From the results of five agricultural carbon emission carbon neutrality scenarios:Anhui,Jiangsu,Hubei,Chongqing,Sichuan and Guizhou provinces can achieve agricultural carbon neutrality under more than four scenarios,and all of them are the earliest to achieve under the high-economy and low-population scenarios.Yunnan Province has two policy scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality,the earliest of which is achieved under the low-economy and high-population scenarios.The remaining four provinces can only achieve the carbon neutrality goal under one policy scenario,with few alternative paths and single agricultural development policy regulation.Among them,Hunan and Zhejiang are high-economy and low-population scenarios;Shanghai and Jiangxi are scenarios with low economy and high population.(4)The Super-SBM model is used to calculate the optimal agricultural development path found by the agricultural carbon emission efficiency under each scenario.The optimal path of agricultural carbon peak in Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Hubei,Chongqing,Hunan,Chongqing,Sichuan and Guizhou is the agricultural high development scenario,and the optimal path of agricultural carbon neutralization is the high development and low population scenario.Shanghai,Yunnan and Anhui provinces can only choose low agricultural development policy and low agricultural development and high population policy as agricultural development policy because of the single path to achieve the goal of"double carbon" in agriculture,and the efficiency of agricultural carbon emission is low.