Research On Simulation Prediction And Control Strategy Of Carbon Emission Reduction System Under Carbon Peak And Carbon Neutrality Goals

In order to explore appropriate emission reduction strategies for different types of provinces and regions to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,according to the influencing factors of carbon emission and carbon sink,the carbon emission reduction system is divided into five subsystems: population,land,energy,economy and water resources.On the basis of clarifying the causal relationship between and among variables within the system,determining appropriate calculation methods and correlation coefficients of carbon emission and carbon sink,The carbon emission reduction system model of Ningxia,Shanxi and Shandong was constructed.Divided into two stages(2020-2030 and 2030-2060),five control strategies including trend development strategy,land adjustment strategy,energy efficiency strategy,integrated control strategy 1 and integrated control strategy 2 are set.System dynamics method is used.Forecast and analyze the change trend of total carbon emission,structural carbon emission and carbon emission reduction in Ningxia,Shanxi and Shandong during 2020-2060,find out the appropriate control strategy to achieve the "double carbon" goal,and further discuss the emphases and ranges of emission reduction in Ningxia,Shanxi and Shandong.The results show that:(1)Under comprehensive control strategy 2,the peak range of total carbon emissions of Ningxia,Shanxi and Shandong provinces will appear between 2030 and 2035,which can successfully achieve the target of "carbon peak".Among them,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region’s peak time is 2034,with a total carbon emission of 285 million tons;Shanxi Province’s peak time is 2033,with a total carbon emission of 741 million tons;Shandong Province’s peak time is 2033,with a total carbon emission of 2.367 billion tons.(2)Comprehensive control strategy 2 is the most appropriate control strategy for structural carbon emissions.Compared with the other five control strategies,comprehensive control strategy 2 is the most appropriate control strategy for carbon emissions from land use in the three industries,and is the most appropriate control strategy with other strategies for carbon emissions from cultivated land and people’s life.(3)Under the integrated control strategy 2,Ningxia,Shanxi and Shandong provinces can all achieve the goal of carbon neutrality before 2060.Under comprehensive control strategy 2,the change trend of total carbon dioxide emission,total carbon sink and carbon emission reduction in the three provinces and regions was investigated.It was found that the total carbon sink in Ningxia,Shanxi and Shandong exceeded total carbon emission for the first time during 2059-2060,and the carbon emission reduction in the three provinces and regions was-297,900 tons,-119,900 tons and-402,800 tons,respectively.(4)Energy consumption contributes the most carbon emissions in Ningxia,Shanxi and Shandong,and is also the top priority of emission reduction.Ningxia can promote coal consumption reduction instead,improve wasteland,increase forest area as the focus of emission reduction;Shanxi can reduce thermal power consumption,expand clean energy power consumption as the focus of emission reduction;Shandong can focus on reducing natural gas consumption,upgrading technology and increasing the proportion of new energy vehicles supply.In the process of carbon emission reduction,Ningxia has relatively small emission reduction pressure,Shanxi has moderate emission reduction intensity,and Shandong should adopt relatively greater emission reduction intensity.Different emission reduction amplitude can be concretedly reflected in the variable growth rate setting of comprehensive control strategy 2.