Sino-us Trade Friction On China’s Sports Goods Export Trade Empirical Study Of Impact

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,the world economy has entered a period of weakness.Some western developed countries have taken the lead in implementing trade tightening policies,and countries around the world have followed suit in order to protect their own industries and enterprises.The world has entered an era of anti-globalization.Based on the sports goods export trade data of the United Nations Trade database from 2002 to 2021,the multi-variable grey prediction model of MGM(1,2)was established in this paper.The counterfactual reasoning method was used to determine the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s sports goods export trade.Among the findings: The trade friction between China and the United States has no negative impact on the export of China’s sports goods to the world,but also brings a small increase in export volume.Among them,knitted or crocheted sports clothing,non-motorized bicycles,fishing gear and snowshoe boots are negatively affected during the Sino-US trade friction.The negative impact of non-motorized bicycles is the most significant 17.55%.Sports clothing,indoor sports goods,outdoor sports goods,general sports shoes and boots showed positive effects,among which the positive effect of sports clothing was the most significant 15.77%;The trade friction between China and the United States has a certain negative impact on China’s sports goods exports to the United States and shows a lag.In 2019,the negative impact was 5.07%,among which non-motorized bicycles,sports ships,general sports shoes and snow sports shoes were negatively affected in the trade friction between China and the United States.The negative effect of non-motorized bicycles was the most significant 57.50%.General sporting goods,indoor sporting goods,fishing gear and sports clothing showed positive effects.Indoor sporting goods had the most significant positive effect,with the influence range of 16.20%.Among the nine categories of sports goods exported from China to the United States,China’s tariff increase is the main reason for the poor export performance of related products to the United States.In conclusion,trade friction between China and the United States leads to strong instability in China’s sports goods export.In order to ensure the steady development of China’s sports goods export trade,a solution mechanism is proposed.Adjust sports development strategy to provide policy support;Deepen opening to the outside world and actively integrate into the regional economic and trade system;According to the new development pattern of "double cycle",create diversified export mode of products;Enhance the competitiveness of sports goods export,expand the consumer market of Asian and European countries;Promote digital enabling technology innovation,enhance the international competitiveness of products;Tap the potential of domestic demand and stimulate domestic sports consumption.