| Since the reform and opening up for more than 40 years,with the comparative advantages of demographic dividend and resource endowment,China has rapidly embedded into the global value chain,and has become the "world factory" at one stroke,and has made great economic development,among which export trade has made a huge contribution.Due to the characteristics of China’s resource endowment,environmental regulation and other factors,export trade is also accompanied by environmental problems while driving economic growth.At present,the academia pays more attention to the environmental problems,such as carbon emissions and carbon leakage.However,while carrying out production activities,there will be not only carbon emissions,but also air pollutant emissions.Unlike carbon emission,which is a global problem,air pollutant emission,as a local problem,has a serious side effect,which is harmful to the health of local residents.As the "factory of the world",the transfer of air pollutants in the process of China’s export trade and its impact on the health of Chinese residents are the focus of this paper.Based on this,this paper makes a systematic study on the impact of air pollutant transfer emission caused by export trade on the health of Chinese residents by means of MRIO model,Os-Chem chemical transport model,IER model,willingness to pay method and other model methods.In order to study the transfer emissions of air pollutants from major countries in the world to China’s provincial level,this paper inserts China’s inter-regional input-output table into the world input-output table,and USES the MRIO model to calculate the characteristics of air pollutant transfer emissions in the process of China’s export trade from different dimensions.Based on the above conclusions,this paper used the Geos-Chem chemical transport model for a counterfactanalysis to simulate the influence of air pollutant emissions on PM2.5 concentration in different situations and combined with IER models to study the impact of changes in PM2.5 concentration in air caused by export trade on the health of Chinese residents.Combined with the willingness to pay method,the hidden health costs caused by export trade are further monetized,and the value added of exports measured by WWZ method is compared and analyzed to study the welfare effect of export trade.In terms of organizational structure,this paper is divided into six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,including the research background,research significance and other aspects.The second chapter is the literature review,the third chapter to the fifth chapter is the main research content of this paper,and the sixth chapter is the research conclusion,policy recommendations and research prospects.In Chapter 3,China’s multi-regional input-output table is embedded into the world input-output table,and eight air pollutants transfer emission characteristics of China’s export trade are measured and analyzed from different dimensions,so as to better understand the characteristics of air pollutants transfer emissions caused by export trade.The study shows that,taking the PM2.5 of the first emission as an example,the PM2.5 transfer emission caused by China’s export trade from 2007 to 2012 is 1847.082256.26Kt,accounting for about 16.15-21.29%of China’s production side emissions.From the perspective of international transfer emissions,42.57-50.47%of PM2.5 transfer emissions from China’s export trade come from developed countries,and 49.53-57.43%come from developing countries.However,93.76-94.29%of PM2.5 emissions from China’s export trade are transferred to developing countries.Emissions from domestic regional overflow,effect of regional emissions in inland provinces into the discharge of the industry of higher chemical industrial production,electricity,steam,gas,hot water tap water supply industry and other service industries,coastal provinces such as Shanghai,jiangsu,zhejiang,guangdong,shandong,through electronic communications equipment manufacturing,electric machinery and equipment,such as textile and clothing industry,chemical industry and general industry shift to other provinces.SPA results show that all the top 100 paths of China’s export trade to PM2.5 emissions come from regional emissions.The United States,Japan,South Korea and Germany have 82 transfer in emission paths of PM2.5 to China,which indicates that PM2.5 is mainly from local emissions and mainly from developed countries.The top 100 domestic spillover paths account for 0.39%of domestic spillover emissions.Among them,Guangdong,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Jiangsu are the main export regions of China’s internal spillover emissions in the top 100 paths,and the domestic spillover effect accounts for a relatively small proportion,which further indicates that haze is mainly local emissions and mainly transferred from coastal provinces.Chapter 4 mainly studies the influence of export trade on PM2.5 concentration and residents’ health in China.We designed a fact analysis,the MRIO model calculated the discharge side as a benchmark,and remove the export trade lead to discharge the production side as the goal,we respectively of the two kinds of situations into administrators-Chem chemical transport model is analyzed,finally get both cases China PM2.5 concentrations in the air.On this basis,we will use the PM2.5 concentration data observed by satellites to correct the simulation results of the two situations.The impact of the export trade on the health of the Chinese population was analyzed using adjusted PM2.5 concentration data in both cases combined with IER models.Research results show that China’s air pollution present a similar to the characteristics of "Hu Huanyong line",that is air pollution serious areas concentrated in the east "heihetengchong line",and more serious air pollution in export trade in cause of air pollution is bigger,the export trade in the lighter air pollution cause air pollution is small.Based on the Lee exposure response model,the national death toll due to PM2.5 in China was 1213,256 in 2012.In 2012,98,221 people died in China due to rising PM2.5 concentration caused by export trade,accounting for 8.1%of the national death toll caused by PM2.5.Based on the estimates of GBD exposure response model,the number of deaths caused by PM2.5 in China in 2012 was 1080,963.In 2012,there were 59,125 deaths in China due to rising PM2.5 concentration caused by export trade,accounting for 5.47 percent of national deaths due to PM2.5.Chapter 5 studies the environmental health costs,value-added benefits and welfare effects of China’s export trade.Specifically,based on the implicit health cost of Chinese residents caused by the transfer of air pollutants from export trade in the previous chapter,the implicit health cost is made explicit by using the willingness to pay method.Finally,the paper analyzes the impact on the welfare of Chinese residents by comparing the benefits(value added,i.e.trade gains)and costs(economic loss of Health)of China in export trade.The results show that,based on the RR equation estimated by Lee et al.(2015),the health economic loss of air pollutants caused by China’s export trade in 2012 is 7.446 billion yuan,accounting for 0.36%of that year’s export trade.Based on the RR equation estimated by GBD database,the health economic loss of air pollutants caused by China’s export trade in 2012 was 4.507 billion yuan,accounting for 0.22%of the year’s export trade.China’s total exports showed an upward trend,from 9554.247 billion yuan in 2007 to 13666.585 billion yuan in 2012,an increase of 43.04%,while its value-added rate increased from 69.14%in 2007 to 74.77%in 2012.According to the RR equation of Lee et al.,(2015),we calculated that the per capita health economic loss caused by China’s air pollutant emissions caused by export trade was 34.96 yuan,accounting for 0.46%and 0.34%of the per capita export added value and per capita export respectively,with a difference of 0.12%.Based on the RR equation of GBD(2017),we calculated the per capita health economic loss caused by China’s air pollutant emissions caused by export trade The loss was 21.16 yuan,accounting for 0.28%and 0.21%of the per capita export added value and per capita export value respectively,with a difference of 0.07%.Chapter 6 summarizes the research conclusions,and puts forward policy implications from the perspectives of trade transformation and upgrading,global value chain climbing,high-quality development and so on.Finally,it points out the future development direction based on this paper. |
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