Estimation And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission In Heilongjiang Animal Husbandry

Heilongjiang Province has unique geographical advantages and resource endowments,making it an important commodity grain base and a strong province for animal husbandry development in China.With the establishment of the action plan of"carbon peak,carbon neutrality"dual carbon goals,how to achieve high-quality agricultural development,help implement the construction of green Longjiang River,reduce agricultural carbon emissions,and increase the level of agricultural carbon sink is a key problem that must be solved for Heilongjiang Province to achieve the"dual carbon"goals.The greenhouse gases emissions from animal husbandry account for 18%of the total greenhouse gas emissions from human activities,and the feed resources required for the development of animal husbandry are closely related to the planting industry.Therefore,in order to achieve the low-carbon transformation of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province,it is necessary to clarify the dynamic changes and influencing factors of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province.By using low-carbon theory and advanced mathematical modeling methods,the correlation mechanism between animal husbandry development and carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province can be revealed from two dimensions:time and space,and from two levels of economy and carbon emissions.This provides a scientific theoretical basis for the sustainable low-carbon economic development of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province.This paper estimates the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province and13 prefectures and cities in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020 by using the Life Cycle Assessment（LCA）method.Through the spatial agglomeration characteristics analysis（Moran’s index method）and BP neural network regression prediction model,the time and space analysis of the estimated results is carried out and the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2031 are predicted;At the same time,the Tapio decoupling model,Kaya identity,and LMDI model were constructed to explore the relationship between the animal husbandry economy and carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province,as well as the driving factors affecting the carbon emissions of animal husbandry.The results indicate that:1.The average annual growth rate of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020 was 2.29%,showing an overall upward downward slightly upward trend.From the perspective of various emission links,the highest carbon emissions are from the gastrointestinal fermentation environment（42.49%）,followed by the feed grain planting link（30.55%）,fecal management link（23.15%）,feeding energy consumption link（3.16%）,feed grain transportation and processing link（0.62%）,and slaughter processing link（0.03%）.2.From the estimation results of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in various cities in Heilongjiang Province,it can be seen that the total carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Harbin have shown a decreasing trend year by year,from the first to the third,and the decrease has been significant in recent years.The analysis of spatial agglomeration characteristics shows that there is a significant spatial positive correlation between carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province since 2017（Moran index=0.298>0,Z=2.097>0,P=0.035<0.05）;The results of local autocorrelation analysis show that the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province exhibit a high concentration characteristic mainly in Qiqihar City,Daqing City,and Suihua City.3.According to the carbon emission prediction results,it is estimated that carbon emissions from animal husbandry will increase by approximately 10.60%from 21.4847 10kt/CO₂ in 2020 to23.766 10kt/CO₂ in 2025.The carbon emissions in 2031 are projected to be 22.885 10kt/CO₂.According to the 2020 GDP data of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province,the CO₂emissions per unit of gross domestic product in the same sector is expected to decrease by approximately 79.2%in 2030 as compared to 2005.This decrease meets the requirement of a 65%reduction in CO₂ emissions per unit of gross domestic product as stated in the’Notice on Action Plan for Carbon Peak before 2030’issued by the State Council.4.The Tapio decoupling model results indicates that from 2000 to 2020,the relationship between the development of animal husbandry economy and carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province was mainly characterized by weak decoupling,which was manifested as a slow increase in carbon emissions while the animal husbandry economy was steadily developing.The areas with good decoupling effects within the province are Daqing City,Mudanjiang City,Jiamusi City,and Daxing’anling Region（mainly in weak decoupling state）,while the cities with poor decoupling state are Qiqihar City and Suihua City（mainly in strong negative decoupling state）,showing a decline in animal husbandry economy while increasing carbon emissions.5.The decomposition calculation results of driving factors show that changes in agricultural population benefits are the main driving force for the continuous increase in carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province,while changes in the production structure of animal husbandry are secondary factors promoting carbon emissions;The main factor inhibiting the increase in carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province is the change in production efficiency of animal husbandry,while secondary factors are the level of urban development and population mobility.For the main areas of animal husbandry development in Heilongjiang Province,such as Qiqihar City,Daqing City,and Suihua City,the decomposition results of driving factors are basically consistent with the situation in Heilongjiang Province.The decomposition results in major livestock and poultry in Heilongjiang Province indicate that production efficiency factors are particularly crucial for suppressing carbon emissions from livestock and poultry,while economic factors are the main driving factors for promoting an increase in carbon emissions.In summary,the overall trend of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province is on the rise.Based on the current spatial autocorrelation results within Heilongjiang Province,it is proven that the future development of animal husbandry in Qiqihar City,Daqing City,and Suihua City is conducive to low-carbon development.Based on the decoupling effect status and driving factors between Heilongjiang Province and various cities,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from a macro level for the transformation of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province towards green and low-carbon development.