Study On Dynamic Changes And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions From Animal Husbandry In Five Provinces(Regions) Of Northwest China

In recent years,the issue of climate change has attracted wide attention from all countries in the world.The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has issued a series of programmatic documents to promote global greenhouse gas emission reduction.A special report released in October 2018 explicitly called for "net zero emissions" by around 2050.In order to achieve this goal,countries began to vigorously develop low-carbon economy and accelerate the pace of carbon emission reduction.Animal husbandry,as an important industrial sector of national economy,not only provides products needed for human daily life,but also produces a lot of greenhouse gases in its production process.Therefore,the issue of carbon emissions in animal husbandry has been widely concerned by scholars,and it is urgent to realize the low-carbon transformation of animal husbandry production.The northwest is a key area for livestock production,and the resulting carbon emissions cannot be underestimated.Therefore,this paper studies the dynamic changes and influencing factors of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Northwest China,in order to provide necessary reference for the coordination of ecological environmental protection and economic development.Firstly,this paper systematically reviewed relevant literature and measured the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Northwest China during 2000-2020 according to the carbon factor coefficient published by IPCC.LMDI model was used to analyze the influencing factors of animal husbandry carbon emissions.On this basis,the GTWR model was used to analyze the temporal and spatial dynamic changes.The results showed that:(1)Carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Northwest China showed an increasing trend year by year,among which Xinjiang had the largest carbon emissions,with a maximum value of 22.2567 million tons,and Ningxia had the smallest carbon emissions,with a minimum value of2.449 million tons.The overall carbon emission intensity showed a downward trend,and the intensity gap among provinces gradually narrowed.(2)Production efficiency factors had negative inhibitory effects on carbon intensity of animal husbandry;The population size factor has a positive promoting effect on Ningxia,Shaanxi,Qinghai and Xinjiang,and a negative inhibiting effect on Gansu.The structural factors had a positive promoting effect on Ningxia,Shaanxi,Gansu and Xinjiang,and had both positive promoting and negative inhibiting effect on Qinghai,which showed different performance in different years.Economic factors have positive promoting effect on carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in provinces.(3)The regression coefficients of economic development level were all negative,indicating that the improvement of economic level significantly inhibited the increase of carbon emissions from animal husbandry;The regression coefficient of animal husbandry industrial structure was positive in most years,indicating that the increasing proportion of animal husbandry in agriculture would promote the carbon emission of animal husbandry.The regression coefficient of urbanization level is different in different provinces and different years.The urbanization level of Ningxia and Qinghai is positively correlated with the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry;the urbanization level of Xinjiang is negatively correlated with the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry;the urbanization level of Shaanxi and Gansu is positively correlated with the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry from negative correlation.