Study On The Evolution Of Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency And Its Coupling And Coordination With Food Security In Hebei Province

The global climate change under the effect of carbon emission has given rise to a series of environmental problems and posed serious challenges to the ecological environment,and carbon emission has gradually become a hot issue of concern worldwide.Due to the use and frequent transformation of nature by human activities,the issue of carbon emission has also emerged,and carbon emission from agriculture accounts for a relatively large proportion of the overall carbon emission system,so the issue of carbon emission reduction from agriculture has become another key concern.As the world’s largest carbon emitter,China’s annual per capita carbon emissions in 2020 will be as high as 7.1t,and the carbon emission situation is becoming increasingly serious.Agriculture is an industry under the influence of natural and human factors,which is vulnerable to climate conditions on the one hand,and produces greenhouse gas emissions in the production and operation process on the other hand.Therefore,promoting agricultural carbon emission reduction is conducive to the green and sustainable development of agriculture.As an important food production area in China,Hebei Province contributes to the economic development of China.With the large-scale farming activities,the situation of carbon emission caused by increased input of agricultural resources such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides are urgent,and it is especially important to achieve efficient development of agricultural economy based on low-carbon production in agriculture.Therefore,this article measures the development of agricultural carbon emission and agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020 with the help of agricultural carbon emission measurement system and Super Efficiency(Slacks-based Measure,SBM)model,and then uses Tobit regression model to verify the factors affecting agricultural carbon emission efficiency by regression.Finally,based on the coupled coordination model,the coupled coordination between agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security is explored,and relevant recommendations are proposed for stabilizing grain production and achieving low carbon production in Hebei Province.The main conclusions drawn are as follows:(1)The total agricultural carbon emission and agricultural carbon emission intensity in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020 show a fluctuating decline in general.Compared with the agricultural carbon emission intensity,the rate of decline in agricultural carbon emissions is larger with a decline rate of 6.9906.The total agricultural carbon emission in Hebei Province decreases from 1214.38 ten thousand tons in 2000 to 1080.37 ten thousand tons in 2020.The intensity of agricultural carbon emissions,on the other hand,decreases from 0.162 tons per million yuan in 2000 to 0.022 tons per million yuan in 2020.From the selected sources of agricultural carbon emissions,fertilizer and tilled land bring the largest carbon emissions and are the two most important carbon sources.Spatially,the spatial variation of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province generally shows a spatial layout of high in the south and low in the north.(2)The study of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Hebei Province from 2000 to2020 is based on the "dynamic and static" approach.In the static dimension,the agricultural carbon emission efficiency fluctuates at a rate of 0.0265,with an annual average value of 0.765,and the lowest value of 0.454 in 2000.The Malmquist Luenberger(ML)index in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020 under the dynamic dimension has less fluctuation,and the impact of technological progress on agricultural production efficiency is greater than that of technical efficiency.(3)Among the factors influencing agricultural carbon emission efficiency under Tobit model,labor force size(X1),economic development level(X2)and mechanization level(X4)are the main factors influencing agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Hebei Province,and have a significant positive relationship.The degree of crop disaster(X3),fertilizer use(X5),livestock manure disposal(X6)and agricultural industry structure(X7)were negatively correlated with agricultural carbon emission efficiency.Therefore,it is important to better utilize the favorable side of the positive effect and avoid the unfavorable side of the negative effect as much as possible in promoting low carbon production in agriculture.(4)Food security has a basic guarantee role in stabilizing the demand for economic development,and food security in Hebei Province is at the security level from 2000 to 2020.The coupled coordination analysis of food security and agricultural carbon emission efficiency shows that the value of coupled coordination between the two increases over time,indicating that the two is also developing in the direction of coordination.From the spatial change,it also shows that "coordination" gradually dominates,indicating that agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security of Hebei Province match each other to a high degree and the coupling coordination level is also in a good position.