| Since the 21st century,environmental changes caused by global warming have become the focus of political,economic,and scientific fields around the world,and the annual increase in carbon emissions is one of the important factors leading to global warming.As the second largest source of carbon emissions,agriculture accounts for about 12%-15%of global total emissions,of which N2O and CH4 emissions account for as high as 60%-50%,which not only inhibits the improvement of agricultural productivity,but also Restricted the sustainable development of regional economy.As a large traditional agricultural province in my country,Hunan Province plays an important role in promoting the construction of ecological civilization.How to improve agricultural productivity and ensure economic development while achieving the "double carbon" goal is one of the important challenges Hunan Province is facing at this stage.Therefore,this study selects 122 county-level administrative units in Hunan Province as the research object,and according to the specific conditions of their agricultural production activities,calculates and analyzes the characteristics of changes in agricultural carbon emissions from 2006 to 2020.Expected indicators are included in the agricultural carbon emission efficiency evaluation system,and the SBM-DDF model is used to evaluate its efficiency.At the same time,combined with GML index and exploratory spatial data analysis method to explore the Spatio-temporal characteristics of agricultural carbon emission efficiency,and carry out empirical analysis through Tobit model,in order to understand the main factors affecting the efficiency of agricultural carbon emission.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The total agricultural carbon emissions in Hunan Province showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2014,and a downward trend from 2015 to 2019.The total agricultural carbon emissions in 2006 were 20.0645 million tons,and in 2020 it was 19.0703 million tons,a decrease of 99.41%tons.Among them,the carbon emissions of agricultural material input,animal husbandry and crop planting accounted for 58.29%,32.55%,and 9.16%of the total emissions,respectively,indicating that agricultural material input is the main source of agricultural carbon emissions in Hunan Province.(2)From 2006 to 2020,the average annual growth rate of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Hunan Province was 0.33%,from 0.8523 to 0.8991,showing an overall upward trend.The main driving force for its rise is the joint advancement of technological progress and technological efficiency,among which technological progress is the biggest driving force,with a growth rate of 7.3%.In terms of spatial dimensions,the evolution trajectory of carbon emission efficiency in the counties of Hunan Province shows a growth trend of high in the east and west and low in the north and south.The difference between the north and the south is greater than the difference between the east and the west.Variety.In terms of spatial characteristics,the overall efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions presents a positive spatial autocorrelation,but its homogeneity in local spatial differences is slightly weakened,and the heterogeneity is continuously increasing.The main distribution of high efficiency(HH)clusters is In a few areas in the eastern and western parts of Hunan Province,low-low(LL)agglomeration is mainly distributed in the northern and southern parts of Hunan Province,and the agricultural carbon emission reduction efficiency in adjacent areas influences each other in space.(3)The inefficiency value caused by input indicators and undesired indicators accounted for as high as 82%.Among them,the redundancy of agricultural input elements and pollution emissions are the main reasons affecting the production efficiency of various regions in Hunan Province.The proportion of redundant inputs in Hunan Province is determined by the order from high to low is agricultural film,pesticides,chemical fertilizers and agricultural machinery.Therefore,reducing the excessive input of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizers is the top priority of Hunan’s agricultural carbon emission reduction.(4)The factors affecting the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hunan Province have spatial scale dependence.On the whole,the process of urbanization and the development of agriculture,forestry and water affairs have a significant positive impact on the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions.significant negative impact.From the perspective of different regions,the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area is mainly affected by the area of cultivated land,urbanization process and the development of agriculture,forestry and water affairs,while the Dongting Lake area is affected by many factors,including the area of cultivated land,rural electricity consumption,urbanization process,Natural disasters,per capita income of rural residents,and average annual temperature,etc.,are most significantly affected by cultivated land area,rural electricity consumption,and development of agriculture,forestry and water affairs in central and southern Hunan.It is also significantly positively correlated with the development of agriculture,forestry and water affairs and the per capita disposable income of rural residents.Therefore,based on the microscopic perspective of the county scale,the SBM-DDF model is used to evaluate the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Hunan Province and explore the impact mechanism of agricultural carbon emission in different regions,which not only enriches the research cases of regional carbon emission efficiency,but also contributes to the Counties(cities)in Hunan Province formulate emission reduction policies to provide theoretical support for the realization of ecological sustainable development. |
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