Study On The Influence Mechanism Of Global Oil Trade Network And The Change Of Trade Status

As an important national strategic resource,oil trade will inevitably become the target of national competition.Its trade activities are complex and changeable and are affected by many factors.This thesis takes the global oil trade data from 2007 to 2019 as the research object,and analyzes the complex network formed.This thesis conducts an in-depth study of the global oil trade network on network evolution mechanism and trade status.The main content as follows: First,the composition of the oil trade network is analyzed by the method of complex network,and the global oil trade landscape is described through network statistical indicators and community analysis.Secondly,it explores the influencing factors of the evolution of the oil trade network.Taking the impact of international competitiveness on the oil trade relationship as the breakthrough point,the ERGM model is used to study the impact of national competitiveness-related indicators on the evolution mechanism of the global oil trade network with cross-sectional data.The time effect and other relational effects were then introduced to form a longitudinal and comprehensive TERGM model for further study and validation,and the robustness of the model was verified.Then,focus on the key positions and importance of each trading country in the network,first through the calculation of a single network indicator,identify the key nodes in the oil trade network in terms of power status,control ability,indirect influence ability,uncontrollable ability,etc.And based on the D-S evidence theory,the above indicators are integrated into a new indicator to comprehensively measure the trade status of countries in the global oil trade network.From the perspective of complex oil competition generating crisis and spreading,the cascading failure model is used to simulate the real influence scale of trading countries in oil supply crisis and demand crisis.Finally,some findings are as follows: most national competitiveness has a significant impact on the formation of oil trade relations,but the factors and degrees of influence are different;most of the countries that are in the forefront of the trade status are the most active oil import and export countries in the world,especially those with net imports.The oil demand crisis has a greater impact on the global oil trade network than the supply crisis,and the influence scale of the top trade status is also high.Driven by diversified trade policies,countries should strive to improve their competitiveness so that they can have greater influence in trade networks.18 picture,17 tables,78 references.