Research On Evolution Of Natural Gas Trade Pattern Of Countries Along The Belt And Road Based On Complex Network

The formation and development of the One Belt And One Road(B&R)initiative has a profound historical background and a clear target.It focuses on inter-country trade and energy cooperation.Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources along the B&R.Firstly,the natural gas production forecast model based on the gray model and the natural gas consumption forecast model based on the feasible generalized least square method are respectively established to predict the natural gas output and consumption trend of countries along the B&R in 2030.Secondly this paper selects 66 countries of the B&R in 1992-2016 PNG and LNG trade data,for the node with the country,with natural gas trade relations between countries,build complex network in the B&R,further study on the characteristics of gas trade networks,understand the difference in the evolution of the PNG and LNG trade networks.Finally,considering the factors such as import diversification,import and export capacity,cost,transportation distance and political stability,this paper constructs a natural gas trade pattern prediction model for the B&R to predict the evolution of PNG and LNG trade.The research shows that the network has Matthew effect.Compared with the rapid development of LNG trade,the relationship between countries in the PNG trade network will not change significantly in the future.The LNG trade shows its flexibility because there are no geographic restrictions.China's LNG imports will reach 121.1bcm in 2030,accounting for 67.9% of China's total natural gas imports.China will increase its LNG imports from Qatar,Malaysia and Indonesia along the B&R.Finally,from the perspective of China,corresponding policy Suggestions are given to improve the stability of natural gas trade.