Research On The Impact Of China’s Global Value Chain Division Status On The Implied Carbon Of China-ASEAN Trade

Since the successful signing of the China and ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA)agreement in 2002,trade between China and ASEAN has become increasingly frequent.Subsequently,China and ASEAN have actively implemented various initiatives of the "the Belt and Road" and signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.This series of agreements made ASEAN surpass the EU for the first time in 2020 and become China’s largest trading partner,In the first quarter of 2022,the value of China-ASEAN trade has reached 1.35 trillion yuan,accounting for 14.4% of China’s total foreign trade.One of the reasons why China and ASEAN have made such remarkable achievements in trade today is that China and ASEAN have participated in the Global Value Chains(GVCs).China has advantages in the production of labor-intensive and resource-intensive products,and mainly focuses on the trade of intermediate goods,which leads to China and ASEAN being basically in the middle and lower reaches of the global value chain division of labor,It is mainly engaged in production links with low added value and high pollution,such as processing and assembly,and undertakes the transfer of implicit carbon emissions from developed countries,which is one of the reasons why China’s carbon emissions become the first in the world.Therefore,studying the relationship between China’s global value chain status index and trade implied carbon can provide decision-making reference for China to achieve the goal of upgrading to the GVC high-end and achieving the "double carbon" early.On the basis of existing relevant literature,this paper selects the input-output data and carbon emission data in Eora database,and then calculates the value-added trade volume and trade implied carbon between China and ASEAN by combining the total trade accounting method.First,the total export value added is divided into four parts and analyzed in detail.The responsibility for carbon emission reduction is also comprehensively judged from the perspective of production and consumption.Then,the calculation results of the implied carbon in China-ASEAN trade are compared and analyzed from the overall,industry,sector and other aspects.Then,on the basis of added value,we use the formula to calculate China’s global value chain division position index from 2000 to 2016.Then,according to the impact mechanism of China’s global value chain location index on trade implied carbon,build appropriate measurement models for these two variables to carry out benchmark regression analysis.Finally,the following conclusions are drawn.First,whether China or ASEAN,the main source of trade added value is the domestic added value of export intermediate goods,and most of the added value comes from the exporting countries and is absorbed by the importing countries;Second,the implied carbon of China’s exports to ASEAN is greater than that of ASEAN’s exports to China,that is,there is a "carbon leak" problem in China-ASEAN trade,but the implied carbon of net exports is gradually decreasing;Third,China’s carbon emissions from the production side are far more than the implied carbon from China’s exports calculated by the consumption side,so it is unfair to view the responsibility of carbon emission reduction only from the production side;Fourth,heavy manufacturing industry is the main source of carbon emissions in China-ASEAN trade,but there are differences in the structure of carbon emissions from exports of industries in the two regions.In addition to heavy manufacturing industry,China’s electric power industry and other industries export a large proportion of the total implied carbon,while ASEAN exports in light manufacturing and service industries produce more carbon emissions;Fifth,there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between China’s GVC status index and export implied carbon.Only when China improves its participation in GVC to a certain level,can further improve the GVC status index inhibit the increase of export implied carbon,and under the test of robustness and heterogeneity,the conclusion remains consistent.Sixth,from the perspective of mechanism analysis,the division of labor in the global value chain can influence the export implied carbon by studying the structural and technological effects,which is also an inverted U-shaped relationship.Based on the above calculation and empirical regression results,this paper proposes that China can gradually adjust its export trade structure and change its foreign trade development model,learn from countries at the top of the global value chain,get rid of the "low-end lock-in" dilemma,and improve China’s GVC division of labor status with high quality;Secondly,focus on the development of advantageous industries,promote the upgrading of the overall value chain,grasp the new advantages of export trade,and promote the rise of GVC embedded position of core sectors to influence and drive the rise of GVC division position of the remaining industry sectors;The third is to lead the regional value chain and promote common green emission reduction.Take RCEP as a development opportunity,and use the new advantages of regional value chain to help improve the division of labor in the global value chain,and cooperate to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction;Finally,it is proposed that China should further promote energy transformation,exchange and learn new technologies from neighboring countries,develop green new energy and improve energy utilization.