Analysis On The Structure Evolution And Influencing Factor Of Global CO2 Flow Network Embodied In The International Trade

In recent years,the increasing global warming has seriously threatened the sustainable development of human society.To curb global warming,world organizations and governments have adopted binding agreements to reduce the adverse effects of global warming,such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.Carbon dioxide accounts for more than half of all greenhouse gases,and China has always been a major manufacturing country for carbon dioxide emissions.However,it is not negligible that more than 20% of China’s carbon emissions each year come from the carbon embodied in trade.In order to achieve China’s target on carbon emission reduction,fulfill the commitment to the international community,and assume the responsibility of big countries,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the global CO2 flow network embodied in the international trade,find out its structure,and provide certain policy recommendations for China’s carbon emission reduction.Based on the input-output model and the method of complex network,this paper uses the Eora global MRIO ranging from 1996 to 2015 to construct an expanded environmental input-output model,and constructs a global CO2 flow network embodied in the international trade.Then this paper extracts the top3 global CO2 outflow network embodied in the international trade and the top3 global CO2 inflow network embodied in the international trade from the whole network,analyzing the global CO2 flow embodied in the international trade from the perspective of outflow and inflow.In addition,this paper uses the relevant indicators of complex network to analyze the overall structure and nodes of the both networks.The results show that the average path length of top3 global CO2 outflow network embodied in the international trade and the top3 global CO2 inflow network embodied in the international trade increased slightly during 1996-2015.The maximum intensity of the both network show a decreasing trend and decrease by nearly a half.In addition,the mutual relationship between the nodes in the both networks is weak.The clustering coefficient and the assortativity coefficient are also low in the both networks.Besides,the major countries of the top3 global CO2 outflow network embodied in the international trade are the United States,China,Japan and Germany.The core countries of the top3 global CO2 inflow network embodied in the international trade are Zimbabwe,Moldova,Belarus and Ethiopia.There is significant imbalance among the countries above.Additionally,this paper uses the ERGM model to analyze the influencing factors of the above two networks.The results show that the tree structure is not prominent in the top3 global CO2 outflow network embodied in the international trade and the top3 global CO2 inflow network embodied in the international trade,and the information cascade effect between nodes is weak.The countries with large GDP,large population and large land areas are more active in the top3 global CO2 outflow network embodied in the international trade,and they have more carbon outflow relationships.However,large GDP countries and large population countries are relatively insignificant in the top3 global CO2 inflow network embodied in the international trade,but countries with larger land areas still have strong popularity in the network and have many carbon inflows.In addition,the “core-peripheral” structure of the top3 global CO2 inflow network embodied in the international trade is weak.The human relationship networks and geographic networks have an important impact on the top3 network of implied carbon flows in international trade.The regional trade agreement network and the common border network have a strong influence on the top3 global CO2 outflow network embodied in the international trade,while the top3 global CO2 inflow network embodied in the international trade is more embedded in the common border network.In the process of building the “Wild China” and achieving carbon reduction targets,China should pay more attention to the status and influence of the country in the global CO2 flow network embodied in the international trade,especially in the high-level network.The carbon emissions should not be viewed in isolation,but the country and other countries should be treated as a whole in the global CO2 flow network embodied in the international trade.Besides,China should rationally construct regional trade agreement relations and neighboring trade relations to upgrade China’s industrial structure and build trade implied carbon inflow relations,reducing China’s territorial carbon emissions.