Research On Network Of Carbon Embodied In Global Manufacturing Trade With The Background Of GVC

Global Value Chain(GVC)has become the main form of international division of labor.With the continuous increase of global trade volume and the further deepening of GVC division of labor,the issue of embodied carbon emissions in trade is attracting wide attention of the international community.At present,the rapid development of global trade is closely related to the deep participation in the new international division system characterized by GVC division of labor,and the trade embodied carbon from GVC division of labor have become increasingly prominent.Manufacturing is the most prominent sector of global trade embodied carbon emissions,and the global manufacturing embodied carbon transfer is forming a closely linked network.A comprehensive and in-depth study of the impact of GVC division of labor on the embodied carbon network in manufacturing trade will help us understand the motivation and trend of carbon transfer in global trade,so as to better respond to international climate negotiations and formulate scientific policies for energy conservation and emission reduction in manufacturing and low-carbon economic transformation.Under the background of GVC division of labor,this paper aims to explore the spatial structure characteristics and influencing factors of embodied carbon emissions in global trade,with social network analysis and econometric analysis as research methods,it constructs the research framework of embodied carbon emissions and carbon transfer in global manufacturing trade under the GVC division of labor system.The research interval is from 2005 to 2015.The study found that: First,the scale of trade embodied carbon emission in continued to increase,mainly from developing countries and emerging economies.Although the trade embodied carbon emission intensity of developing countries and emerging economies is also declining,the gap with developed economies has not narrowed,and the downward trend is unstable.The index of Export Comparative Embodied Carbon of manufacturing in developed countries is generally higher than that in developing countries and emerging economies,and this gap also shows an expanding trend,especially in the manufacturing of computer,optical and electrical equipment.At the same time,the largest scale of bilateral carbon flow is from the metal and metal products manufacturing industry,and the fastest growing is the computer,electronic and optical products manufacturing industry.Second,the global manufacturing embodied carbon emission network has scalefree characteristics and small world characteristics,and shows obvious community structure and significant ‘core-edge’ characteristics.The large-scale carbon flow transferred in the network only exists among a few countries,and there is an asymmetric correlation between nodes in the network.From the analysis of agglomerative subgroups,the subgroups in the network showed a highly centralized trend during the study period.In addition,the centrality indicators of developed economies are relatively stable,while those of developing countries or emerging economies have increased significantly.Third,theoretically,the impact of GVC specialization on global embodied carbon network is embodied in three aspects: carbon emission transfer effect,carbon lock-in effect and carbon emission suppression effect.Firstly,the carbon emission transfer of GVC division of labor is the result of industrial transfer and intra-product trade.The complexity and network of international division of labor brings the complexity and network of carbon emission space.Secondly,the inhibitory effect is reflected in that embedding GVC in a country or region can reduce the embodied carbon emission intensity of the country or region by improving the level of technological innovation.Finally,the carbon lock-in effect is reflected in the GVC division of labor may deepen the high carbon lock-in effect of industrial development in developing countries from the aspects of technology and institutional system,and finally form a ‘manufacturing carbon lock-in’ mechanism with comprehensive attributes and various locks superimposed.The final total effect of GVC on manufacturing embodied carbon networks depends on the interaction of various mechanisms.Fourthly,from the empirical analysis results,firstly,the GVC division network has a significant impact on the global manufacturing embodied carbon network.There is a nonlinear relationship between GVC status and embodied carbon transfer among countries.A rise in a country’s GVC status index relative to another country would result in a first rise and then a fall in the country’s exports of embodied carbon.Secondly,the GVC division of manufacturing industry in each country(region)has a significant impact on its centrality in the embodied carbon network.The level of economic development,population,trade scale,trade structure and technical level can directly affect embodied carbon emissions and thus change node centrality.The impact of GVC embedding on the weighted-out degree of hidden carbon network nodes is negative and shows a rising trend.Deep integration into the global value chain is an important path to reduce hidden carbon emissions.The increase in GVC division of labor has not significantly reduced a country’s export embodied carbon.On the contrary,for countries or regions with high node weights themselves,the improvement of GVC status further increases their network weighted out,and GVC has a prominent carbon locking effect on developing countries.The forward participation of GVC has no significant effect on the weighted out-degree of nodes,but the backward participation can greatly reduce the weighted out-degree of nodes.For developing countries and emerging economies,their forward participation is low,and position of value chain division is not high.At present,reducing carbon emissions through GVC embeddedness is still achieved through backward participation.According to the research conclusion,this paper suggests that,on the one hand,emerging economies and developing countries should seek development with a more open mind and embrace with a more open mind.On the other hand,they should be alert to the ‘pollution heaven’ that may be caused by GVC embeddedness,actively participate in international climate negotiations,and achieve the rise of GVC status and the progress of green technology by strengthening independent innovation,changing the mode of economic growth,and adjusting the structure of import and export trade,so as to effectively reduce the generation of embodied carbon in trade.