Study On The Effect Of Agricultural Export On Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity In Shandong Province

Since 2006,China’s agricultural trade has made great progress.In order to adapt to the changes of the domestic and foreign market environment and enhance the competitiveness of products,the quality of China’s agricultural products needs to be improved.Agricultural green total factor productivity(AGTFP)can be used to measure the high-quality level of agricultural development scientifically and reasonably,and help to grasp the direction of agricultural policy formulation.With the economic growth and the expansion of opening to the outside world,Shandong Province has become a major agricultural province and a strong agricultural export province in China.It is of great practical significance to study the impact of agricultural exports on Shandong’s AGTFP.This paper starts with the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province and studies its influence on AGTFP.Firstly,the theoretical mechanisms of agricultural exports on AGTFP are explored.And then after analyzing the current situation of agricultural development and agricultural products export in Shandong Province,the SBM model with unexpected output and GML index are applied to measure AGTFP in 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2019.Finally,the system GMM model is constructed to empirically study the influence of agricultural products export on AGTFP in Shandong Province.In addition,this paper analyses its heterogeneity from the perspective of product and the three big economic circle.Furthermore,the mechanism of the influence of agricultural exports on AGTFP is tested.The results show that:First of all,the per capita arable land area of Shandong province is relatively small,the water resources are scarce,and the agricultural labor force decreases year by year.But there are the rich land resources,the suitable climate,and the improvement of agricultural technology,thus the agricultural output value of Shandong province constantly increase.During the sample period,the agricultural pollution intensity showed a downward trend.Agricultural output and the export of agricultural products on the upward trend and the growth rate is fast.The exports of aquatic products and vegetables were large,while exports of sugar and oil crops were small.Qingdao,Yantai and Weifang export more agricultural products,while other cities export less.Secondly,the AGTFP in Shandong Province was slowly improved from 2006 to 2019,and the average AGTFP in 14 years was 1.2212,with an average annual growth rate of1.4%.The progress of agricultural green technology and the improvement of agricultural green efficiency in Shandong have promoted the improvement of AGTFP,among which the progress of agricultural green technology plays a greater role in it.By city,Liaocheng and Tai’an had higher AGTFP,while Weifang and Heze had lower AGTFP,but progress in agricultural green technology in all cities has increased over the past 14 years.By region,the AGTFP of the provincial capital economic circle was slightly higher,followed by the Southern Shandong economic circle,while the Jiaodong economic circle had the lowest AGTFP.Thirdly,agricultural products export in Shandong Province significantly promoted the improvement of AGTFP.For every 1% increased in the export volume of products in each city,the agricultural green total factor productivity was increased by 0.01 units on average.The AGTFP in the last period will inhibit the improvement of AGTFP in the current period.With the increase of agricultural science and technology level and labor force,the AGTFP of cities in Shandong Province will be significantly improved.While the energy consumption and economic development level have no significant impact on AGTFP in Shandong Province.In addition,there are product heterogeneity and three economic circle heterogeneity of agricultural products on AGTFP in Shandong Province.From the perspective of agricultural products types,the export of fruits,nuts and vegetables has a significant impact on AGTFP,while the export of other types of agricultural products has no significant promotion effect on the improvement of AGTFP in Shandong Province.In terms of the three major economic circles,the impact which in the provincial capital economic circle and Jiaodong economic circle is significant,while the export of southern Shandong economic circle has no significant impact on AGTFP.Last but not the least,the export of agricultural products plays a positive role in the AGTFP in Shandong Province by promoting agricultural technological progress and optimizing resource allocation.The relative size of the intermediary effect played by technological progress and resource allocation is 24.66% and 22.41%,respectively.According to the research results,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.Accelerate the progress of agricultural science and technology and promote the transformation of agricultural scientific and technological achievements;Improve the talent training mechanism to prevent brain drain;Promote international trade in agricultural products and help agricultural enterprises go out.This is of certain significance for formulating agricultural trade policies and promoting the development of high-quality agriculture in Shandong Province.