The Influence Of Agric Ultural Export Trade On Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution

Agricultural products trade is related to food security and peasants' income.But in recent years,the impact of agricultural trade on the environment has gained more and more scholars and policymakers'attention and research.As a big country of agricultural products,agricultural products trade occupies a very important position in our country's international trade.However,in the creation of great economic benefits,the problem of agricultural non-point pollution is becoming more and more serious,which poses a great threat to the quality and safety of agricultural products,sustainable development and people's physical health.Under this background,how to realize the win-win situation between the development of foreign trade of agricultural products and the protection of agricultural environment has become a concern of all sectors of society.Shandong Province is a major exporter of China's agricultural products.By 2015,whose export volume of agricultural products has become the No.1 nationwide for 15 consecutive years,accounting for the share of China's agricultural exports a quarter.Therefore,based on the data of Shandong Province,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the harmonious development between agricultural product export trade and agricultural non-point source pollution.Firstly,this paper analyses the related theories and its mechanism of impact of agricultural product trade on agricultural environment,which lays a theoretical foundation for the later study.Secondly,the paper analyses the present situation of agricultural product export trade and agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province,the results show that:from 1998 to 2015,the export trade of agricultural products in Shandong Province shows an overall upward trend;four main sources of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shangdong Province,chemical fertilizers pollution,pesticide use pollution,agricultural film use pollution,pollution of livestock manure discharge and their negative impact on agricultural eco-environment.Among them,fertilizer application intensity and pesticide use intensity have been kept at a relatively high level,fertilizer application intensity has far exceeded the safety ceiling set by developed countries,agricultural film use intensity and livestock manure discharge have been decreasing.Thirdly,in the empirical analysis of agricultural economic system and environmental system,we first construct a trade environment effect model which contains the dummy variables of trade barriers to estimate the impact of Shandong's agricultural products export trade on agricultural non-point source pollution.Then,the VAR model is constructed,and the influence degree of the generalized impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis are respectively carried out.Through the combination of static analysis and dynamic analysis,we find that although the negative scale effect of the export of agricultural products aggravates the agriculture non-point source pollution,but the positive structural effect andtechnical effect exceed the negative effect of scale while environmental regulation has played a positive role in reducing pesticide residues.In general,the export trade of agricultural products in Shandong Province is easing agricultural non-point source pollution.Through the analysis of the successfully experience of the United States,EU,Japan and other developed countries in the process of controlling agricultural non-point source pollution,which provides reference for agricultural non-point pollution control.Finally,based on the previous analysis and from the perspectives of scale effect,structure effect,technology effect and environmental regulation effect,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the coordinated development of agricultural economy and agro-ecological environment in China.