Study On Influencing Factors And Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emission From Thermal Power Industry In Anhui Province

As the global temperature continues to rise,the negative effects of CO2 emissions become more and more obvious,posing a threat to the earth’s ecosystem.Therefore,China proposes carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets under the background of coordinated emission reduction among countries.The ninth Meeting of the Financial and Economic Commission of the CPC Central Committee presided over by General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly defined the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutral work.With the launch of online trading of China’s carbon emission trading market,the power generation industry became the first industry to be included in China’s carbon market.Therefore,based on the carbon emission data of Anhui thermal power industry from2005 to 2020,this study mainly discusses the following work:(1)The LMDI decomposition method was used to decompose the carbon emissions of the thermal power industry in Anhui Province to explore the factors affecting carbon emissions.The results show that the positive driving factors of carbon emissions in Anhui thermal power industry from 2005 to 2020 are per capita GDP effect,industrial power intensity effect and coal consumption effect,while the negative driving factors are power supply structure effect and industrial structure effect.In order to further analyze the influence degree of each influencing factor on carbon emissions,STIRPAT model was introduced to explore,and finally the relevant carbon emissions expression was obtained.(2)According to STIRPAT model fitting,coal consumption for power generation,per capita GDP and industrial electricity intensity will have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions,while power supply structure will have a significant negative impact on carbon emissions.The carbon emissions can be expressed as follows: In C=9.049 + 0.412*In K-0.606*In G + 0.852*In AG + 0.646*In CR,which indicates that every 1% increase in coal consumption rate of power generation will increase carbon emission of thermal power industry by 41.2%,and every 1% decrease in power supply structure rate,Each 1% increase in per capita GDP will lead to an85.2% increase in the carbon emissions of the thermal power industry.Each 1%increase in industrial power intensity will lead to a 64.6% increase in the carbon emissions of the thermal power industry.(3)Scenario analysis was used to set the scenario parameters of the factors affecting the carbon emissions of anhui thermal power industry,and the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario were set according to different economic development and emission reduction conditions.Based on STIRPAT model formula,the carbon emissions of Anhui thermal power industry from2021 to 2030 were predicted and analyzed.The study found that the carbon peak could be achieved before 2030 in both low carbon and enhanced low carbon scenarios,and the peak time was 2028 and 2025,respectively,and the peak value was 222,542,600 tons of standard coal and 203,557,200 tons of standard coal.