Analysis And Prediction Of Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission In Shenmu City,Shaanxi Province

With the development of urban civilization,environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious.In order to achieve sustainable low-carbon economic development,that is,to reduce carbon emissions as much as possible while ensuring development,each region should reduce emissions according to the factors that significantly affect carbon emissions in its own economic development and predict the trend of carbon emissions in the future.In this paper,Shenmu City of Shanxi Province is selected as the research object to deeply study the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Shenmu City of Shanxi Province under sustainable development,evaluate the carbon emissions in 2020-2021 and predict the carbon emissions in Shenmu City of Shanxi Province in 2022-2035.This paper mainly applied PATH-STIRPAT model to analyze the relationship between variables such as population size and wealth degree and explanatory variables as well as their impact on carbon emissions,and came to the following conclusions:The five main factors affecting carbon emission in Shenmu are energy structure,energy intensity,economic development level,urbanization rate and city size.Among them,the economic development effect has the greatest influence,which is inseparable from the development of Shenmu City;Based on the grey model prediction model and GM(1,1)model,the energy consumption pattern was predicted by using the coordinate transformation of component data.The results of 2020-2021 forecast were compared with the actual data.It is concluded that the extended STIRTPAT model has better prediction effect than GM(1,1)model.Based on GM(1,1)and the extended STIRTPAT combined model,the carbon emissions of Shenmu city in Shanxi province in 2022-2035 are predicted.The conclusion is that the future carbon emissions of Shenmu city will show an increasing trend.