Spatiotemporal Variations,Influencing Factors And Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emissions In 9 Provinces(Regions) Of The Yellow River Basin

As ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin has become a national strategy,a comprehensive accounting of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin,as well as revealing the influencing factors of its spatial and temporal changes,is the basis and guarantee for the formulation,implementation,and evaluation of carbon emission reduction strategies in the Yellow River Basin.Through an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing energy carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin and their peaks,the actual situation of low carbon development in China can be better grasped,so that carbon emission reduction policies can be more clearly formulated in line with the current reality,and can better guide future sustainable development.This thesis takes nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin as the research object,and calculates the energy consumption and carbon emissions of nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2019 using energy conversion coefficients from the China Energy Statistics Yearbook 2018 and annual data from the National Bureau of Statistics by province,and carries out a spatial and temporal decomposition analysis of the factors influencing carbon emissions in nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin in combination with the LMDI model,elucidating the Based on the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis,the carbon emissions of the nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin are predicted,and the time and peak of the carbon peak in the Yellow River Basin are projected.The main results are as follows.(1)From 2003 to 2019,the total energy consumption of the nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin showed a general trend of growth,with coal consumption accounting for the highest proportion but gradually showing a declining trend.In addition,the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions generally show a fluctuating increasing trend,and the growth rate of carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions both show a fluctuating decreasing trend.(2)Carbon emissions in the nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin show different patterns in time and space.In the temporal dimension,carbon emissions in the basin generally show an upward trend from 2003 to 2019,but the scope of growth gradually shrinks.The key factors promoting and inhibiting carbon emissions in the basin are economic growth and energy consumption intensity;population size shows a positive driving effect on the growth of carbon emissions in the basin,while energy carbon emission intensity shows a suppressive effect.From the spatial dimension,the overall carbon emissions in the basin show a year-on-year increase from 2003 to 2019,but the upward trend gradually decreases and shows a geographical divergence of midstream < upstream < downstream.Economic growth and population size are the drivers of carbon emission growth in the basin.The intensity of energy consumption is the inhibiting factor for the growth of carbon emissions in the basin.The intensity of energy emissions is not only a driver of carbon emissions in the middle reaches of the basin but also a disincentive to carbon emissions growth in the upper and lower reaches of the basin.(3)Based on the STIRPAT model,it is found that the nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin show different results under different carbon emission models.That is,under the low carbon model,the basin reaches its peak carbon emission in 2030;under the baseline model,the basin reaches its peak carbon emission in 2040;under the high carbon model,the basin reaches its peak carbon emission in 2045.In addition,there are significant differences in the peaks reached by each of the nine provinces(regions).The study found that accelerating the development rate of population,GDP per capita,urbanization rate,the share of secondary industry,and energy consumption structure can promote the increase of peak and delay the emergence of the peak;increasing the speed of optimal adjustment of energy intensity can help achieve carbon peak earlier with a lower peak;however,the impact of each variable on the peak time and peak number of carbon emissions in each province(regions)varies.(4)Based on the above research,this paper proposes measures to reduce carbon emissions in the nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin: promoting low-carbon living and high-quality development of urbanization;developing clean energy and adjusting the energy consumption structure;optimizing the industrial structure;improving the level of low-carbon energy-saving technology.