Carbon Emission Scenario Prediction For The Electric Power Industry In The Yellow River Basin Under The Background Of Carbon Neutralization

The Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Protection of the Yellow River stipulates that "local people’s governments at or above the county level in the Yellow River basin should develop distinctive and advantageous modern industries and clean low-carbon energy in accordance with local conditions,and promote carbon peak carbon neutrality." This puts forward requirements for the realization of carbon neutrality in the Yellow River basin.Carbon emissions from the power industry are the main source of carbon emissions in the Yellow River basin.Therefore,studying carbon emissions from the power industry in the Yellow River basin is an important part of achieving carbon neutrality in the Yellow River basin.Based on the data from 2008 to 2019,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the power industry in the Yellow River Basin,and based on this,constructs 18 simulation scenarios and a carbon emission prediction model LEAP-NEMO-Hhe for the power industry in the Yellow River Basin.With 2020 as the base period,it forecasts the carbon emissions of the power industry in the Yellow River Basin under the simulation scenario,and further judges whether the carbon neutrality goal can be achieved,Finally,based on this,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for carbon emission reduction in the Yellow River basin.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)In all simulation scenarios,the power demand in the Yellow River Basin shows a growth trend from 2021-2060.In 2060,the total power demand was between 7.7 and 33.4 trillion k Wh,and the faster the economic growth and the higher the power consumption intensity,the greater the power demand.(2)With the breakthrough of new energy electric power storage technology,the proportion of renewable energy power generation has increased,and the proportion of coal-fired power plants equipped with CCS has increased.Therefore,the proportion of traditional coal-fired power plants to withdraw is relatively large.In 2060,the proportion of coal-fired power generation units to generate electricity decreased to between 4% and 12%.Under the condition of breakthrough in new energy storage technology and low cost,the proportion of renewable energy power generation reached 74%-78% in 2060.(3)Under the condition that ecological carbon sinks absorb carbon emissions from the power industry,three scenarios,namely,H EC 3 2035,M EC3 2035,and L EC 3 2035,can achieve the carbon neutrality goal in 2060 for electricity.All three scenarios will achieve breakthroughs in electricity technology in 2035,namely,the cost of renewable energy power generation equipped with energy storage technology will decrease,and the commercial application of CCS technology will be achieved.Therefore,breakthroughs in electricity technology are an important support for achieving the carbon neutral goal in the Yellow River Basin.The power consumption intensity of the above three scenarios shows a downward trend,so measures to reduce the power consumption intensity can effectively promote the achievement of the carbon neutral goal.